Saturday, February 12, 2022

NATO is standing strong and that is reassuring.

February 12, 2022

...Macron visited Moscow (click here) earlier this week and then and in their call on Saturday the two discussed ways to move forward on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements on achieving peace in eastern Ukraine, as well conditions for security and stability in Europe, the Elysee said separately in a statement.

Macron also spoke on Saturday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and was due to speak with U.S. President Joe Biden.

In the call with Zelenskiy, Macron restated his support for the Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Elysee said.

Scholz is due to visit Kyiv on Monday followed by Moscow on Tuesday, and the Elysee said the French and German positions were "perfectly aligned".

MINSK I (click here)

Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists agreed a 12-point ceasefire deal in the capital of Belarus in September 2014. Its provisions included prisoner exchanges, deliveries of humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, five months into a conflict that by that point had killed more than 2,600 people - a toll that has risen to more than 14,000 now, according to the Ukrainian government. The agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides...

MINSK II

Representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of two pro-Russian separatist regions signed a 13-point agreement in February 2015 in Minsk. The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine gathered there at the same time and issued a declaration of support for the deal.

The deal set out a series of military and political steps that remain unimplemented. A major blockage has been Russia's insistence that it is not a party to the conflict and therefore is not bound by its terms. Point 10, for example, calls for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations and military equipment from the two disputed regions, Donetsk and Luhansk: Ukraine says this refers to forces from Russia, but Moscow denies it has any there....

Perhaps the issue with Russia is national security and it is concerned that Ukraine has grown strong enough to be a potential problem for Russia's western border. Putin cannot expect NATO to understand the idea of MINSK Agreements if there is an escalation in tensions.

The MINSK agreements need to show not just improvement of the people in regard to humanitarian aid, but, also a plan for peace that includes new trading agreements. Ukraine under the new leadership of President Zelensky has worked very diligently to remove corruption from it's politics and it's economy. I am sure Ukraine is concerned all that will return if there were open relations again between the two countries. 

At some point President Putin needs to realize Russia's occupation of Crimea and the continuing civil war on Ukraine's eastern border is not condusive to a trusting relationship. That has to change. The people of Ukraine want their sovereignty. They are interested in being a neutral state without ill will to any other country. That is not a country that is interested in conflict, especially with a major power such as Russia.

Ukraine is not interested in crossing the Russian border. It fights in eastern Ukraine to protect it's own border. With a clear understanding that Ukraine wants peace and has not indicated a priority to enter a war with Russia there should be a strong de-escalation of tensions and a strong will to find terms in MINSK to move forward with peace and the promise of a trade relationship that is not offensive to either country and built on a new trust that will prove permanent.

February 12, 2022
By Jim Heintz and Aamer Madhani

Washington - President Joe Biden told Russia’s Vladimir Putin (click here) that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but “equally prepared for other scenarios,” the White House said Saturday. It offered no suggestion that the hourlong call diminished the threat of an imminent war in Europe.

Biden also said the United States and its allies would respond “decisively and impose swift and severe costs” if the Kremlin attacked its neighbor, according to the White House.

The two presidents spoke a day after Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that U.S. intelligence shows a Russian invasion could begin within days and before the Winter Olympics in Beijing end on Feb. 20.

Russia denies it intends to invade but has massed well over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and has sent troops to exercises in neighboring Belarus, encircling Ukraine on three sides. U.S. officials say Russia’s buildup of firepower has reached the point where it could invade on short notice....