Monday, August 03, 2020

To address the observations from the weekend.

In regard to flooding along the coast of the Great Lakes, there could be pure negligence. Canada is a better gauge of that then trying to figure out if Trump is being stupidly ambitious in relation to a westward canal. It will be impossible to scale the Rocky Mountains with a canal for large ships. A more likely scenario is that Trump is eliminating personnel that run the apparatus of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Not the lock operators, although he might throw that expense completely to Canada, the administration that receives information about the impact of the locks on the shoreline. I would first eliminate the possibility that a heap of complaint letters is sitting on an empty desk. I still think the courts are a better mechanism at this point to end the shoreline erosion that will result in catastrophic damage to lakeshore towns. Canada's administrators will be seeing problems too, that might provide insight to NEGLIGENCE by the Trump Administration to the problems along the lake shores.

The trucks:

I think the semis/tractor-trailers are running from Sunday night to Friday night. There has been a movement in the country over the past three years by drivers that are demanding to be home on the weekends. That would explain the absence of the semis on the weekend. I sincerely believe that is what has occurred.

There are more interesting dynamics that go along with that. The drivers are still probably clocking long hours during the week and on the road 24 hours a day. Not one driver for 24 hours a day, each driver working his max hours in 5 days and not 7 days. That provides a fresh set of hours to drive as of a return to work on Sunday evening or Monday morning. 

So, therefore, what about the freight? More or less?

That dynamic is better determined by consumer sales and amount of diesel fuel sold to trucks. The amount of diesel fuel sold will determine the number of miles clocked by the drivers. If the amount of gross diesel fuel sold is less then the miles are down and the amount of freight being moved is down. If the inverse is true then the freight being offloaded to warehouses has increased. 

Consumer sales will state a couple of things. It can state that items are moving off the shelves quickly and are selling at moderate prices. If the sales dollars are down then the cost is consistent and the number of items sold is less. However, we know that capitalism requires items to be more costly if the number available is down. So, if the consumer sales are down when reported in dollars, that means there is less merchandise for whatever reason that is the case. Considering there are Wall Street brick and mortar stores declaring bankruptcy that indicates sales are down and inventory is down.

It may be that this entire paradigm shift may indicate a permanent shift in the way consumers are spending. They are focused on their homes. A quick glance at mortgages and the chance they are being paid down or paid off to prevent such threat in the future is a real possibility. The homes are also receiving facelifts and improvements to increase their value. I think consumer spending is more fixed on the home than items. The children have been home for school as well so that means some dedicated space to conduct class in the home and study afterward in preparation for the next school day.

Now about what I found in Traverse City:

PEOPLE ARE FOLLOWING THE RULES. Americans are definitely concerned about the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Most Americans. The nut cases running around spreading the virus need to be arrested as a public nuisance and put in jail. Trump's mixed messaging also is disrupting the well being of the people. The Democrats and the Lincoln Project folks need to have a counter-message about public safety and how that is achieved by sheltering at home when not engaged in work, demanding a work environment that is safe, wearing masks as a mandate until the country is free of the virus, being patient about a vaccine that works, protecting children by schooling at home, postponing school athletic events until the virus is under control and continue to social distance.

GOOD RULES WILL RESULT IN GOOD OUTCOMES.

What I saw in Traverse City were people enjoying their lives, exercising caution, understanding the danger, AVOIDING POTENTIAL HARM, and BELIEVING THEIR GOVERNMENT TO DIRECT THEIR ACTIVITY.

Wearing facemasks was a requirement by the local government. It was a good rule. The people in Traverse City were obeying the law and were grateful for clear and concise directions about their social activity. They didn't mind the masks. No one was complaining or demonstrating against their freedom. They were having fun and enjoying their lives because they were wearing masks and not being stupid about it.

The fact no one was on the roads after the bars and restaurants were closed means the people were in Traverse City for at the very least the entire weekend. But, more likely the entire week. They weren't there for the day. They weren't there for the moment. They were there after making plans, securing reservations (quite possibly reservations made a year earlier), and fulfilling their expectations for a vacation.

The fact there were a wide variety of vehicles carrying passengers, pulling boat trailers, four wheel motorcycles (Quads), ski-doos, and some with camping equipment mounted on the roof and BICYCLES galore means theamy were being cautious about their movement. The people were literally moving in herds of predictable activity within the American definition of a vacation. They were doing what each other was doing and enjoying their lives. Again, they were following the rules their government told them was the best and safest way.

There were also motorcycles traveling in packs. The motorcyclists were not wearing masks on the road, they had face shields with helmets. THERE NEEDS TO BE A RULE ABOUT THAT TO ENFORCE CONFORMITY BY EVERY CYCLIST. This is necessary so when they stop for fuel and go into convenient mini-marts others are protected. So, the motorcyclists need to conform to social protections by either wearing masks when not riding or leaving their helmet and face shield in place when mingling with the public.

Along with car movement was the very occasional bus. Buses need to require masks while on the bus and at any stop along the way. 

I think that does it. The moral of the story is that Americans are counting on their government to be as good as they expect it to be to protect their lives. When the government "OPENS UP" the social realm it is believed to be completely opened UNLESS there are rules they have to conform to within the social venues as there was in Traverse City. The people are trusting their government to protect them. Parents are expecting their government to make absolutely sure their children are safe.

CHILDREN ARE NOT RELIABLE MASK WEARERS.

The government at all levels needs to be making good rules. The people want and will conform to good rules and be happy within those rules. No one wants anarchy. 

The recovery by the USA will occur when there are good rules that are PROVEN to work and bring about complete and absolute elimination of SARS-CoV-2. I feel really bad for the nonconformists screaming about freedom. They are wasting their time and ranting about nothing anyone wants to hear about.