The election has dynamics most didn't expect with the polls of "likely voters."

Hillary Clinton needs to have a good debate. In 2008, the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney saw significant movement of polls after the first debate. Hillary Clinton needs to have a good debate.

It is stated in the New York Post that African American voters have moved by up to 20 percentage points to the Donald Trump column. No other poll is reporting that.

If the black vote is coming into view as one that can change the electoral map there are several interesting issues to consider. If Donald Trump registers a movement of African American voters the Republicans reason for voter ID and erasing voting rolls changes. It may be in a Republican interest to defeat voter IDs and enforce the current voter rolls.

The battleground states have entered the race as decisive voters. The Dems know where their weak spots are and need to reinforce their ground game in those areas. 

This could be an interesting vote in November and perhaps all the gaming that occurred in Republican politics before will disappear. 

NBC News/Survey Monkey is the only poll showing one third Hispanics voting for Donald Trump. The other polls show Donald Trump well below the average GOP interest in those voters.

September 18, 2016

By Mary Kay Linge

...But now, (click here)) less than a week before the crucial first debate of this presidential race — and as a terrorism bombing investigation continues in New York and New Jersey — a viable route has emerged for the Republican nominee, according to the latest NPR Battleground Map.

About a dozen battleground states have gotten closer with some key ones showing Trump leading for the first time. Hillary Clinton retains the advantage, but it's a far more precarious lead for the Democrat than at any time in this presidential race.

Trump's movement comes as many pollsters have switched to "likely voter" models, which try to predict the electorate based on factors like enthusiasm and past voting records. That alone may be responsible for most of the tightening, but it also follows a less-disastrous month of campaigning for Trump than the stretch immediately following the party conventions, which saw his fight with the Khan family, whose son, a Muslim American, was an Army captain killed in Iraq. Trump also began running his first major round of campaign ads in key states in recent weeks....