Sunday, August 21, 2011

I think we have a major hurricane brewing in the Atlantic. I live to be wrong about this mess. Okay?

August 21, 2011
2330:15z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click title to entry for 12 hour loop - thank you) 


Date: 20-22 AUG 201
Tropical Storm IRENE
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  14.90  -58.50 08/20/23Z   45  1006 TROPICAL STORM
  2  15.30  -59.90 08/21/03Z   45  1006 TROPICAL STORM
 2A  16.00  -60.40 08/21/06Z   45  1006 TROPICAL STORM
  3  16.40  -61.30 08/21/09Z   45  1006 TROPICAL STORM
 3A  16.50  -62.00 08/21/12Z   45  1005 TROPICAL STORM
  4  17.00  -63.20 08/21/15Z   45  1007 TROPICAL STORM

Position 4 appears to have passed over a land mass even if a small one that caused a pause in the velocity.

4A  17.50  -63.70 08/21/18Z   45   999 TROPICAL STORM

Position 4A 3 hours later shows a central pressure that has dropped 8 millibars.

5  17.70  -64.40 08/21/21Z   45   999 TROPICAL STORM

It is my estimation this storm is about 200 miles wide from its' eye and over open Atlantic waters.  I am not surprised this is accelerating as it is.  The Longitude may be recorded a bit south of its actual location.  It is not easy to discern these storms sometimes.  This is a Climate Crisis storm and it has diffuse patterns.

 5A  17.80  -64.90 08/22/00Z   50   995 TROPICAL STORM

There is a chance the eye is still in the Caribbean, but, the acceleration for that area of the Caribbean surprises me.  Unless, those waters are hot, hot, hot.  I still stand by the estimation, even in the Caribbean, it is over open water at Position 4A.  

It's just that I hate surprises when it comes to lives.

It is pushing more north right now than south.  If it continues to accelerate there are going to be significant tidal surges.

I believe 'direct solar rays' helps pinpoint the central eye pressure.  So, depending on where the sun's light falls tomorrow morning, the eye won't be far away.

I think the direct solar rays are in the Atlantic at this longitude.  The water vapor will be assisted in 'concentrating' at that point tomorrow morning.  With the intense heat in the 'ground level' troposphere, the direct solar rays are like a prisom, if you will.  A spark to the fire.

I am going to go way out on a limb at this point, but, right now I am going to say ... ???? ... South Carolina ... hm ... around ... Briarcliffe Acres.