It wouldn't hurt if the Swiss Guard checked the walls in the Vatican for new cracks. That entire complex has an underground area that should be well mapped in regard to geological stability. Pope Francis is very precious and the devil is in the details.
The Vatican or better said the Roman Catholic infrastructure has geologist priests among them somewhere, too. They need to get busy for emergency routes and artifacts to protect. Throw in a few engineers as well.
...There are three (click here) major geomorphical settings within the Mediterranean basin; areas with stable margin characteristics, areas with unstable convergent margin charactericstics, and areas with extensional margin (rifting) characteristics. Thus the Mediterranean basin is a location of an intercontinental interplate system; with compressional and extensional events occurring within close proximity. Geologists have yet to come to a consensus about which plates in addition to the African and Eurasian ones, if any, are involved in Mediterranean tectonics. Subsidence-related and other vertical displacements are also found in compressional and extensional areas. A few notable events occurred during the Cenozoic which affected the entire Mediterranean; the Messinian "salinity crisis", when the closing off of the Mediterranean-Atlantic seaway caused complete isolation of the Mediterranean and thus widespread evaporation; and then the Pliocene "revolution", when the channel opened back up, causing reestablishment of marine conditions; and the Quaternary "transgressive raised terraces," of controversial geological origin; among others....
The Mediterranean is where plate movement can cause a great deal of impact. There are enormous forces that come to play in small areas where people have lived and thrived for centuries if not millennia. So, this problem Italy is facing is not likely to end soon. The Pacific has been moving in very large measure and it has concentrated some of the movement in that one edge off New Zealand.
But, the plate movement in other major plates will translate into the Mediterranean over time.
...The Central portion of the Mediterranean basin exemplifies the juxtaposition of compressional and extensional tectonic activity in the area. The region bordered to the west by Sicily and to the east by Turkey's west coast (encompassing the Aegean, Ionian, and Adriatic seas) exhibit a particular set of features and will be the focus of my study.
There were four major periods of extension in this area. The first one occurred in the Mid-Upper Jurassic; evidence of this phase is seen in the Strepanosa Trough and Ionian plain. A second one occurred in the Mid-Late Triassic, opening up the Ionian sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. A third extensional phase occurred in the Mid-Upper Cretaceous, as evidenced by the stretched features of the Sirte Rise, a monocline with normal faults and tilted blocks. The fourth one, occurring in the Mid-Upper Miocene through to the Quaternary period, affected many areas of the Central Mediterranean. This extensional phase is closely associated with compressive motions; it is part of the reason for a counter-clockwise rotation of the Southern Appennine area which begins in the upper Cretaceous. All four of these extensional phases are the cause of geologic features found in the area, such as volcanic activity and rift-related sedimentary processes. Due to such extension, the oceanic crusts of the Central Mediterranean are considerably thinned in some places....
On a geologic timescale we are in the Phanerozoic Eon [542.1 mya (million years ago) to present], the Cenozoic Era (65.5 mya to present), the Quaternary Period (2.588 mya to present), and the Halocene Epoch (11,700 mya to present) are current.
Quaternary (2.588 mya to present) (click here)
- Holocene (11,700 yrs to present)
- Pleistocene (2.588 mya to 11,700 yrs)
AS A BRIEF POLITICAL NOTE: See that 11,700 years ago called the Holocene? How many years ago does the political right wing state Earth was created? I guess they missed everything but the Holocene, right? Their Christian scientists haven't gotten the word yet there is more to Earth's creation than just the Holocene. Being a real scientist with real evidence contradicts their STORY.
I am confident there are seismic recorders surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. If not there needs to be. There needs to be monitoring on a continual basis. The geologists working on this need to find some type of pattern in the chaos. I also suggest they extrapolate their information to include recent plate movement in the Pacific and otherwise. A super computer should be able to discern the patterns and project activity into the future. There might be large ERROR in those projections, but, it is a place to start and then refine the data to encourage insight to protecting Italy and otherwise. I am confident the universities in the region, including, Saudi Arabia have qualified people that MAY HAVE specialized in regional activity.
Good luck!
I am confident there are seismic recorders surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. If not there needs to be. There needs to be monitoring on a continual basis. The geologists working on this need to find some type of pattern in the chaos. I also suggest they extrapolate their information to include recent plate movement in the Pacific and otherwise. A super computer should be able to discern the patterns and project activity into the future. There might be large ERROR in those projections, but, it is a place to start and then refine the data to encourage insight to protecting Italy and otherwise. I am confident the universities in the region, including, Saudi Arabia have qualified people that MAY HAVE specialized in regional activity.
Good luck!