...Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova
In Belarus, Lukashenko has weathered an economic crisis that presented him with the greatest challenge to his rule since he took power in 1994. Corrective measures and financial assistance from Russia have eased some of the more harmful consequences of the crisis, and opposition movements, such as the Revolution through Social Networks, have petered out. Nevertheless, Belarus’s economic situation remains precarious, and Lukashenko’s refusal to institute structural economic reforms raises the likelihood that Belarus will fall into another economic crisis in 2013.
Under President Yanukovych, Ukraine is drifting towards authoritarianism. The October 2012
parliamentary elections were marred by irregularities and fell far short of Western standards for free and fair elections, representing a step backwards from prior Ukrainian elections. Yanukovych also shows few signs that he intends to release imprisoned opposition leader former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko
any time soon, a key condition to improving Ukraine’s relations with the West. The government appears to be “doubling down,” preparing additional criminal charges against Tymoshenko that could keep her behind bars for life. In addition, the lack of structural economic reforms coupled with a precarious financial situation raises the risk of economic crisis in 2013.
There was an obvious shift in the direction of Russia under Yanukovych. The people were feeling the change in their ability to live a life of freedom. The Ukraine with it's western facing economic engines, had a leader that 'personally' wanted none of it. The Ukraine was sinking into a dictatorship imposed by economic ties to Russia.
The status quo in Moldova is likely to prevail during the next year. Electing new leaders in Moldova
and in the separatist region of Transnistria has improved the tone of relations between Chisinau and
Tiraspol. A renewed focus on confidence-building measures, such as easing restrictions on the
movement of people and goods, generated cautious optimism in early 2012 about progress toward
eventual settlement of the Transnistria conflict. However, the negotiating positions of both sides later
hardened, and a settlement to the conflict is highly unlikely in the next year....
The first deaths of 2014 in Ukraine at the Maidan occurred on January 22, 2014. The 2014 Worldwide Intelligence Assessment was issued on January 29, 2014. The change in the Ukraine profile has radically changed. The beauty of the 2014 assessment is that the USA had given up on any change in leadership or democracy in Ukraine. The 2014 assessment of Europe focuses on Keypartnerships and the TTIP. What occurred in Ukraine had absolutely nothing to do with any interest by Europe, the USA or NATO. It occurred because of the people and business leaders within that nation.
The USA assessment had absolutely no plans to expand the need for NATO in Poland or otherwise. The USA is now engaged with military exercises with NATO more intensely because of the continued instability along the Ukraine border that could effect NATO nations. Are we supposed to drop everything and redeploy to the Middle East? With Europe in the balance? It's NATO. Like what?
