Arab Spring (click here)
Although some countries have made progress towards democratic rule, most are experiencing
uncertainty, violence, and political backsliding. The toppling of leaders and weakening of regimes have
also unleashed destabilizing ethnic and sectarian rivalries. Islamist actors have been the chief electoral
beneficiaries of the political openings, and Islamist parties in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco will likely solidify
their influence in the coming year. The success of transitioning states will depend, in part, on their ability
to integrate these actors into national politics and to integrate—or marginalize—political, military, tribal, and business groups that were part of or benefited from the old regimes. At the same time, transitions that fail to address public demands for change are likely to revive unrest and heighten the appeal of authoritarian or extremist solutions.
Three issues, in particular, will affect US interests:
• Ungoverned Spaces. The struggles of new governments in places like Tripoli and Sanaa to extend
their writs, as well as the worsening internal conflict in Syria, have created opportunities for extremist
groups to find ungoverned space from which to destabilize the new governments and prepare attacks
against Western interests inside those countries.
• Economic Hardships. Many states face economic distress—specifically, high rates of
unemployment—that is unlikely to be alleviated by current levels of Western aid and will require
assistance from wealthy Arab countries as well as reforms and pro-growth policies. Failure to meet
heightened popular expectations for economic improvement could set back transitions in places such
as Egypt and destabilize vulnerable regimes such as Jordan. Gulf states provide assistance only
incrementally and are wary of new governments’ foreign policies and their ability to absorb funds.
• Negative Views of the United States. Some transitioning governments are more skeptical than
their predecessors about cooperating with the United States and are concerned about protecting
sovereignty and resisting foreign interference. This has the potential to hamper US counterterrorism
efforts and other initiatives to engage transitioning governments.
The
Although some countries have made progress towards democratic rule, most are experiencing
uncertainty, violence, and political backsliding. The toppling of leaders and weakening of regimes have
also unleashed destabilizing ethnic and sectarian rivalries. Islamist actors have been the chief electoral
beneficiaries of the political openings, and Islamist parties in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco will likely solidify
their influence in the coming year. The success of transitioning states will depend, in part, on their ability
to integrate these actors into national politics and to integrate—or marginalize—political, military, tribal, and business groups that were part of or benefited from the old regimes. At the same time, transitions that fail to address public demands for change are likely to revive unrest and heighten the appeal of authoritarian or extremist solutions.
Three issues, in particular, will affect US interests:
• Ungoverned Spaces. The struggles of new governments in places like Tripoli and Sanaa to extend
their writs, as well as the worsening internal conflict in Syria, have created opportunities for extremist
groups to find ungoverned space from which to destabilize the new governments and prepare attacks
against Western interests inside those countries.
• Economic Hardships. Many states face economic distress—specifically, high rates of
unemployment—that is unlikely to be alleviated by current levels of Western aid and will require
assistance from wealthy Arab countries as well as reforms and pro-growth policies. Failure to meet
heightened popular expectations for economic improvement could set back transitions in places such
as Egypt and destabilize vulnerable regimes such as Jordan. Gulf states provide assistance only
incrementally and are wary of new governments’ foreign policies and their ability to absorb funds.
• Negative Views of the United States. Some transitioning governments are more skeptical than
their predecessors about cooperating with the United States and are concerned about protecting
sovereignty and resisting foreign interference. This has the potential to hamper US counterterrorism
efforts and other initiatives to engage transitioning governments.
The
