When the efforts to combat the climate crisis is left to individual choices of consumers the entire scientific spectrum of influence is eliminated. This article is 2 and a half years ago. Has anyone heard of DROUGHT PREDICTABILITY LEADING TO WILDFIRES?
No?
I didn't think so. The reason this information is not in the hands of consumers is because it is ignored. When LEGISLATION is attempted to limit greenhouse gases it is defeated and such studies become a threat to the political paradigm.
It is time the people have a profound say in the future of their lands, the use of those lands while minimizing the drilling and fracking of public lands. The emissions of greenhouse gases from these activities alone increase the methane levels in the troposphere enormously.
One of the reasons there the climate crisis has to be a national priority to the USA and other countries globally is so that scientific principles and practices can be applied to public policy to end the danger to human life and the land we value.
July 26, 2017
The next mega-droughts (click here) and subsequent active wildfire seasons for the western U.S. might be predictable a full year in advance, extending well beyond the current seasonal forecast and helping segments of the economy related to agriculture, water management and forestry.
The new model, developed by an international team of scientists from the U.S., South Korea and U.K., and led by Utah State University climate scientist Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, was reported in the July 26 edition of Scientific Reports.
The source of this improved predictability is based on a combination of factors, including tropical climate variability, global climate change and the natural filtering effects of soils. To mitigate drought-induced socioeconomic risks, water resource managers require detailed drought forecasts as far in advance as possible. Climate prediction centers generate and routinely disseminate seasonal drought outlooks. However, predicting multi-year droughts that reach well beyond seasonal timescales is challenging for climate scientists.
Over the past 15 years, parts of the western U.S. have experienced severe drought conditions and an increasing number of wildfires that take a toll on people and ecosystems. The team's research shows that in addition to contributions from natural forcings and global warming, temperature differences between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans play a role in causing drought and increasing wildfire risks. The new findings show that a warm Atlantic and a relatively cold Pacific enhance the risk for drought and wildfire in the southwestern U.S.
"According to our study, the Atlantic/Pacific temperature difference shows pronounced variations on timescales of more than 5 years," explained Chikamoto, USU associate professor in the department of Plants, Soils and Climate. "Like swings of a very slow pendulum, this implies that there is predictability in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean system, which we expect will have a substantial societal benefit."
