Let's say there are normally one million Republican Primary voters.
Donald Trump is drawing crowds of 20 thousand at ever stop. There are more supporters outside the rally that aren't counted.
His nearest competitor is Ben Carson. His rallies attract about 1100 maybe.
The polls are conducted with a representative population of Republicans. Let's say there are about 2000 people which is a good size population. The other candidates are achieving variety of rallies with numbers average 800 per rally. Some less, some more.
The standard polling population has a history. All the candidates show up in the polls because they represent the average Republican. However, Donald Trump is a celebrity attracting a number of people never seen before. These folks are new populations to the Republicans.
The polls have always reflected the actual outcome in the past. That won't happen because there are new populations of people moving into the Republican primary. Donald Trump's numbers are so skewed it appears in the polls as increasing support among the electorate, but, there is no accuracy to know what his numbers actually are. The Republican polls are picking up all the other candidates, but, Donald Trump population is not reasonable to know.
I think Trump's numbers are actually higher than they appear. If his are higher then the others' numbers are lower. The primaries are going to have to tell the tale and will correct the polls.
The first debate drew approximately 17 million new viewers that are Americans. Those people are Trumps'. Even if half of those people are his alone, the poll numbers don't reflect that REALITY. How does anyone factor in 8.5 million to 17 million new people? It isn't possible.
Donald Trump is drawing crowds of 20 thousand at ever stop. There are more supporters outside the rally that aren't counted.
His nearest competitor is Ben Carson. His rallies attract about 1100 maybe.
The polls are conducted with a representative population of Republicans. Let's say there are about 2000 people which is a good size population. The other candidates are achieving variety of rallies with numbers average 800 per rally. Some less, some more.
The standard polling population has a history. All the candidates show up in the polls because they represent the average Republican. However, Donald Trump is a celebrity attracting a number of people never seen before. These folks are new populations to the Republicans.
The polls have always reflected the actual outcome in the past. That won't happen because there are new populations of people moving into the Republican primary. Donald Trump's numbers are so skewed it appears in the polls as increasing support among the electorate, but, there is no accuracy to know what his numbers actually are. The Republican polls are picking up all the other candidates, but, Donald Trump population is not reasonable to know.
I think Trump's numbers are actually higher than they appear. If his are higher then the others' numbers are lower. The primaries are going to have to tell the tale and will correct the polls.
The first debate drew approximately 17 million new viewers that are Americans. Those people are Trumps'. Even if half of those people are his alone, the poll numbers don't reflect that REALITY. How does anyone factor in 8.5 million to 17 million new people? It isn't possible.
