Nature
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
According to "The Spiral" we are nearly at 1.5 C. The relationship between current global temperatures and the internationally discussed target limits are also clear without much complex interpretation needed.
If we are confident the current temperatures are near the 1.5 C measurement, then an assessment now will provide a better view of the future and 2.0C. The shortest distance between two points is a straight line. That means climate experts need to move quickly in making recommendations to countries to end their emissions. Currently, 1.5 to 0.0 is the straight line we are looking for. Earth's troposphere has that degree of urgency.
I am convinced Earth has been outgassing water vapor over the south pole. That is serious. Very serious. Earth cannot cool if there is less and less water vapor. The achievement to ending this warming is to radically change the greenhouse gas emissions of their countries. Now.
Scientists for far to long have allowed Earth to be Earth without insisting on responsibility to the deadly changes recorded and presented as evidence. The day of evidence is over EXCEPT for measuring the return of Earth's gaseous biotic balance.
Some scientists covet another Earth in another solar system as the potential next place for human inhabitation and mining the moon. That only distracts from the seriousness before us now. Planning to escape Earth's gravity is not the answer to ending the climate crisis.
In thinking about a straight line to ZERO emissions is the understanding Earth will be Earth and the decrease in gaseous greenhouse gases will be met with an ocean emptying CO2 out of it's chemistry. At least the acidifying of the oceans will reverse first and the oceans can be repopulated with fish species. Along with the end of greenhouse gas emissions, the oceans will also begin to reverse their warming as well.
I like the oxygen produced by plankton and algae. It means a great deal to me. I only wish it meant a great deal to everyone else on Earth.
