If the growth in population is consistent for the average of the past ten years, there will be a 2.1 percent growth in population in 2020. That means there will be 6.9 more million Americans.
The population in 2009 was 306.8 million Americans. When calculating the growth over ten years, the estimate for the increases in the total population in the USA by 2020 is 335.1 million Americans.
According to the CDC, the total current number of COVID-19 cases in the USA is 5,023,649 confirmed cases. The total number of deaths is 161,842. The percentage of people that die within those confirmed cases is 3.2 percent. That means 3.2 percent of all confirmed cases of COVID-19 will die. The overall confirmed infection rate of the entire population of the USA in 1.5 percent.
The number of confirmed cases in the USA from the WHO (click here) is 4,951,851 confirmed cases. The number of deaths from the WHO is 160,898. There is a discrepancy between the CDC reporting and the WHO reporting. That needs to be investigated and it could be as simple as the time of day each organization is compiling their data, but, it needs to be looked into to be sure accuracy in reporting across all venues of information.
For the sake of this entry, I will use the CDC numbers.
The estimated population of the USA for 2020 is 335.1 million Americans. An infection rate of 1.5 percent will result in a total confirmed case of 5,026,500 Americans. Which is 2851 from where we are now. It would be wonderful if that is all that occurs.
The total death rate of confirmed cases will be 160,848 with that population increase for 2020 and a rate of 3.2 percent death factor.
The point here is the infection rate is only 1.5 percent of the total USA population as of today. The death rate is 3.2 percent of those confirmed case numbers. It will take a very long time to achieve "herd immunity." At this rate of infection, it will take approximately 40 years to achieve the goal of 60 percent herd immunity. 40 years folks. Now, the infection rate is exponential so in actuality, it will not take 40 years, but, will take close to that long without a vaccine.
The only REALISTIC way to achieve herd immunity is through a vaccine NOT EXPOSURE.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAY to return economic function and that would be to shut down the USA just as New Zealand did and end the EXISTENCE of SARS-CoV-2. Those are the only two REASONABLE ways to stop the dysfunction of society with the new reality of COVID-19 among us.
I think the vaccine trials need to go forward. A report from "Moderna" today, the USA company, states the vaccine will not be ready before the end of the year. With that in mind, THE ONLY REASONABLE WAY to stop the economic dysfunction due to the virus is to SHUT THE COUNTRY DOWN, ENFORCE THAT SHUTDOWN AND END THE EXISTENCE OF SARS-COV-2 AMONG US.
Today, the only reasonable path forward is STILL shut down. There is no solid reality to a vaccine in sight right now.
