August 3, 20150030.19z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of north and west (click here)
To the left is current, below and right is 12 hours ago. The weather 12 hours ago had the weather persons were predicting a chance of rain. If that was a chance of rain, I'll eat my hat. I would to buy a straw one first of course.
August 2,20151230.18z
UNYSIS Water Vapor Satellite of north and west hemisphere (the 12 hour loop is above)
What occurred was a consolidation of water vapor along a path of dense CO2 with the assistance of the hurricane in the Pacific. I know, I know. How can a hurricane in the Pacific have an effect on the closing day of the Traverse City Film Festival. A cold front also brought instability.
I am sure everyone knows what a hurricane is, a huge cyclone of water vapor that consolidates into an easy identifiable circulations system. They usually start in the ocean, but, not always. Since 2006, there have been NEAR SHORE storms that started because of hot land near a shoreline. There was a devastating Catergoy1 that manifested over the North Carolina shoreline and reeked havoc with board walks and roads and such. That was only one, there have been others.
Below is the category two hurricane called Guillermo. I think that is Spanish. Here it is. It is Spanish for William (click here).
By Meteorologist Malika Dudley
The first aircraft (click here) from the US 53rd reconnaissance squadron flew through Guillermo to collect data on Hurricane Guillermo this morning. The system has begun to look more ragged and the current intensity has been dropped down a notch to a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 90 mph. The system has also slowed some and is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Otherwise, the track and general forecast guidance remains unchanged.
Okay, so as to the water vapor trail that lead to some rather severe storms in along that path and Hurricane-2 Guillermo.
In the past hurricanes were primarily ocean originated and became powerful over the ocean and remained powerful until land fall. The hurricanes today are different.
Who knew there have been three storms in the Atlantic this year? Only three and very puny as hurricanes go.
| 1 | Tropical Storm ANA | 08-11 MAY | 40 | - | ||
| 2 | Tropical Storm BILL | 16-20 JUN | 50 | 997 | - | |
| 3 | Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE | 13-14 JUL | 45 |
This is the Pacific season that occurred before Guillermo.
| 1 | Hurricane-4 ANDRES | 28 MAY-04 JUN | 120 | 4 | ||
| 2 | Hurricane-4 BLANCA | 31 MAY-09 JUN | 125 | 4 | ||
| 3 | Hurricane-1 CARLOS | 10-17 JUN | 80 | 1 | ||
| 4 | Tropical Storm ELA | 08-10 JUL | 35 | - | ||
| 5 | Tropical Storm HALOLA | 09-13 JUL | 50 | - | ||
| 6 | Tropical Storm IUNE | 09-13 JUL | 35 | - | ||
| 7 | Hurricane-4 DOLORES | 11-19 JUL | 115 | 4 | ||
| 8 | Tropical Storm ENRIQUE | 12-18 JUL | 45 | - | ||
| 9 | Tropical Storm FELICIA | 23-25 JUL | 35 | - | ||
| 10 | Tropical Depression EIGHT_ | 27-30 JUL | 30 |
The very first storm this season was Ana in the Atlantic. It was extremely weak and only achieved the designation of Tropical Storm and not Hurricane, but, ANA is the most important storm of the season occurring near North America.
Below is the Typhoon Season in the West Pacific. It started in January and grew in intensity until it reached a Super Typhoon status at the end of March. March 30th to be exact.
16 9.40 143.70 03/30/18Z 125 - SUPER TYPHOON-4
| 1 | Typhoon-1 MEKKHALA | 13-18 JAN | 70 | 1 | ||
| 2 | Typhoon-3 HIGOS | 07-11 FEB | 105 | 3 | ||
| 3 | Tropical Storm BAVI | 11-18 MAR | 50 | - | ||
| 4 | Super Typhoon-5 MAYSAK | 27 MAR-05 APR | 140 | 5 | ||
| 5 | Tropical Storm HAISHEN | 03-06 APR | 45 | - | ||
| 6 | Super Typhoon-5 NOUL | 03-12 MAY | 140 | 5 | ||
| 7 | Super Typhoon-5 DOLPHIN | 07-19 MAY | 140 | 5 | ||
| 8 | Tropical Storm KUJIRA | 20-24 JUN | 45 | - | ||
| 9 | Typhoon-4 CHAN_HOM | 30 JUN-12 JUL | 120 | 4 | ||
| 10 | Typhoon-1 LINFA | 02-09 JUL | 65 | 1 | ||
| 11 | Super Typhoon-4 NANGKA | 03-18 JUL | 135 | 4 | ||
| 12 | Typhoon-2 HALOLA | 13-26 JUL | 90 | 2 | ||
| 13 | Tropical Storm TWELVE | 23-25 JUL | 40 | - | ||
| 14 | Typhoon-3 SOUDELOR | 30 JUL-02 AUG | 105 | 3 | Active | |
| 15 | Tropical Depression FOURTE | 02-02 AUG | 30 | - | Active |
In 2015, which has been the case since 2006, Earth has been having a difficult time in spinning up hurricanes. If one remembers in 2005, the most strong and dangerous storms existed on Earth. There were record numbers that year as well. But, it was also the last year the water vapor would be on the surface of Earth. It was after 2005 hurricane season the water vapor of Earth's surface would begin to migrate into higher altitudes.
To the right is a diagram of the altitudes of atmosphere of Earth. The precious troposphere is where we live and where hurricanes live. It varies in altitude with shallower altitudes at the poles. At least it used to be shallower there. But, the troposphere is traditionally thought of as 4 miles to 12 miles from Earth's surface. As Earth's surface heated with dense cover of greenhouse gases the water vapor no longer remained on Earth's surface at 0.0 latitude (sea level). It migrated upward. Now, with migration of water vapor to higher altitudes where was all the water vapor to spin up a hurricane? Hurricanes simply don't happen because they decide this is a good day for a hurricane. They happen because CONDITIONS are right for them to occur.
So, the legitimate question is where is the water vapor to start hurricanes when the water vapor is at higher altitudes and the heat is at 0.0 altitude?
Since 2006 the hurricanes are developing their own water vapor. The season begins with a near shore storm of which Ana was. It started near shore off North Carolina. It doesn't matter if Ana has a high velocity storm or incredibly powerful, what is important is that Ana took SEA SPRAY and spun up a cyclone / tropical storm.
How is that important that Ana developed because of sea spray off the coast of NC?I've witnessed it in person at the shoreline of Wrightsville Beach, NC and the Atlantic Ocean. Incredibly dense clouds with every breaking wave building and building and building into turbulent storms.
I had lived in that area for years and what I witnessed one day as a visitor to see my friends after I moved away; was nothing I had witnessed before.
There were always marginal changes in humidity with the low and high tides, but, never anything like this. Once the wave broke over on to the shore, it released water vapor permanently into the troposphere. With each breaking wave the WATER VAPOR was soaked up by the dry air as if the thirst of a desert.
As the water vapor accumulated along a very long shoreline maintained in the boundaries of NC, clouds formed and filled with water vapor and they turned dark with particulates and water. The clouds were rising off of the shoreline and not visiting on wind or any type of air circulation. The turbulence that occurred was due to rising clouds from the shoreline which began to accumulate and started it's own circulation center. Ultimately, the circulation center with perfect conditions developed into a near shore tropical storm.
The tropical storm would DELIVER water vapor permanently into the troposphere and as the first storm waned the water vapor was in the troposphere to light the next fire of turbulence. The second storm would deliver more water vapor into the troposphere and pretty soon there was enough water vapor in the troposphere to spin up storms that now reached category status of 4 and 5. The heat was there the entire time, it was simply waiting for the perfect physics of heat and water vapor of tropical storms and hurricanes to drive the heat into the oceans.
Now, as to Hurricane-2 Guillermo and severe storms in northwest lower peninsula Michigan.
1730.18z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of the north and west hemisphere. (12 hour loop above)
Exactly in this satellite image Hurricane-2 Guillermo was filling with water vapor from the equatorial Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. The hurricane was so full of water vapor it spilled over into the troposphere in the form of water vapor.
Two hours later.
August 2, 20151930.18z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of north and west hemisphere (12 hour loop at top of entry)
The water vapor trail is now moving from the ITCZ northward to southwest USA.
What is also evident, with growing water vapor in the troposphere, the Great Lakes are starting to spin up their own turbulence. The waves of the Great Lakes are able to contribute now to the water vapor in the troposphere as it increases over time from Hurricane-2 Guillermo. Now, realize the troposphere at the surface (sea level/lake level)is very dry. It only becomes saturated enough as Guillermo churns in the Pacific.
Two hours later.
August 2, 20152130.19z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of the north and west hemisphere (12 hour loop at top of entry)
The vapor trail provided by Guillermo is now connecting along the ITCZ and a water vapor trail which has been building along with the Great Lakes water vapor. The west coast of North America is beginning to see more water vapor and the turbulence along this entire path. The path from Guillermo to the ITCZ to the west coast of USA to the Great Lakes and onto the east coast water vapor trail is building and what is it building? "A chance of rain?" No. It is building a great deal of air turbulence because an entire hemisphere is filling with water vapor. That water vapor is moving faster and faster on heat concentrations that result in a huge air front accompanied by cold air from the north over Canada.
The entire hemisphere is lighting up with heat driven turbulence all because a hurricane in the east Pacific became saturated enough to distribute the water vapor all over the hemisphere and along the CURVATURE of Earth. As the water vapor from the ITCZ rose and moved north, the curvature of Earth assisted in the RAPID distribution.
And where exactly is the Traverse City Film Festival? Just below 45 degrees north latitude. The cold air from Canada met with the water vapor saturated air and BANG there was turbulence no one saw coming.
The devastation resulted in thunder that would clap one right after another. It culminated in massively strong winds that didn't effect a solid but aged brick building called "The Old Town Playhouse." The brick building didn't even creak. Outside magnificent huge trees toppled as if ripped up from roots with a twist. The base of the trees were rotated when they fell. There were sheered off their base but never were uprooted. The roots were still in the ground. One residential street had trees toppled from both sides of the street to block any escape. Power lines were down and citizens in the theaters and out in the community received a code red alert phone call for everyone to remain in their homes and not travel due to the unpredictable nature of the roads.
The damage in some areas was extensive and as the storm moved off, it displayed huge mammatus clouds as if to say, "It ain't over yet." The clouds passed and it was all over for Traverse City, except, the clean up and repair of electrical service.
That is how a Pacific hurricane caused high turbulence thousands of miles where it continues to spin and travel closer and closer to Hawaii.
"Good Night" for tonight. Tomorrow evening will be a better time.
Oh, I almost forgot. The West Pacific season? It helped build the water vapor in the exact same way in the Pacific and allowed the hurricane headed right toward Hawaii to become saturated.
Until tomorrow.
Thank you.
