Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Bush envoking a new 'War Strategy' in the Tribal Regions of Pakistan will most likely fail.


Darren McCollester/Getty Images
U.S. troops near the Afghan-Pakistani border


It might prove first to be beneficial to defeat anarchy 'post Musharraf' before taking on the Warlords that flourished under him. The USA invasion without the consent of the Pakistani government may turn into a challenge to sovereignty and the USA will again be an unwelcome entity on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan Border. With additional USA troops promised to Afghanistan, it would be best to secure NATO's position and move from that vantage point. Shooting from the hip in the Tribal Regions of Pakistan cannot result in a good outcome. Not at this juncture. It would be helpful is Russia was a willing partner to secure the region and stop violence. I take it asking Russia for assitance is out of the question for Bush.

Analysis (click here)
The Pakistani army has ordered its forces to open fire on any U.S. troops attempting to cross the border from Afghanistan, army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said Sept. 16. Using the words “open fire,” Pakistan is clearly trying to deter continued unilateral U.S. action inside its borders, as it has been doing with talk of firing on U.S. helicopters and intercepting U.S. “spy planes” in South and North Waziristan....


Bush wants to capture or kill Bin Laden before he leaves office. An admirable goal, however, one that is being met with resistance by Tribal leaders, especially since the recent Pakistani elections. The Bush Redress of the Afghanistan mess seeking to enter Pakistan's tribal region comes at a time when the new government has yet to build a strong concensus among the people of this region.

Pakistan, with its new leadership, is strongly positioned to reach out to allies such as Afghanistan and close the gap on cooperation with India, hence, focusing on Kashmir. But, if the people of this area become disgruntled with the new Pakistani government, the progress to greater stability will surely be met with instead greater unrest.

For as much as the tribal areas need to be addressed to rid the world of terrorist elements, turning the people of Pakistan into enemies is not the way to 'stability.'

Kabul needs to join with New Delhi and Islamabad to close the gap of unrest. Strong ties between these leaders can begin to defuse the circumstances now faced with expanding reaches of the Taliban and the ever disconcerting violence of Kashmir. With the assistance of the United Nations, regional border differences with Kashmir can be settled and new ways of governing can be found.

Pakistan now has a reasonable government, it is time to allow that to 'take hold' while bringing a strategy that will disarm terrorist networks forever.

Pakistani tribal chiefs threaten to join Taliban (click title to entry)
US warned of uprising if armed incursions continue
New counter-terror policy backfires on Washington
A controversial new US tactic to mount counter-terrorist operations inside Pakistan has met with fresh hostility, it emerged yesterday, as Pakistani tribesmen representing half a million people vowed to switch sides and join the Taliban if Washington does not stop cross-border attacks by its forces from Afghanistan....



Afghan President Hamid Karzai speaks during a ceremony marking the seventh anniversary of the assassination of Ahmad Shah Masood, Afghanistan's national hero who was killed by al Qaeda operatives two days before the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, in Kabul September 8, 2008.