Entrance to Deception Island, taken January, 2003. Livingston Island is seen behind and to the right. Deception Island coordinates: 62°58′37.2″S, 60°39′0″W. Deception Island has many 'microclimates' due to the volcano and is home to The Chinstrap Penguins.
South Shetland Islands Climate Brief (clikc here). The usual current is between 2 and 6 knots. It would be interesting to know what kind of current this ship encountered.
The current as witnessed in the picture below was pushing against the disabled hull of the ship. It was pushed into the pack ice. It's a very strong current. The pack ice was near enough to cause it to drift into it's midst. Couple of things can happen, none will allow for the recovery of the ship. The ship can drift further into the Pack Ice and become frozen which means it will not sink soon; or it will continue to fill with water and turn over. I doubt it will split in half. But if the hull of the boat and the water inside freeze it won't sink so much as be debris within the ice field.
A small, historic cruise ship with an imperfect security record was listing dangerously after it struck ice in Antarctic waters today, with 154 passengers and crew members evacuated in a flotilla of lifeboats and inflatable boats, the cruise operator and coast guards said....
None of this is conclusive evidence to the cause of the breach of the hull. Not as far as I am concerned.
The incident took place between the Antarctica Peninsula and the South Shetland Islands. At least it looks that way from the map. There is an island near their called Deception Island. The crime if it is; Deception Island is an island in the South Shetland Islands off the Antarctic Peninsula which has one of the safest harbours in Antarctica. A recently active volcano, its eruptions in 1967 and 1969 caused serious damage to the scientific stations there. The only current research bases are run by the Argentine Army and Spain. Also Great Britain has a base on the island that was partially buried by the 1969 eruption
