Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Should Secretary Gates assessment be of concern? Yes and no.

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il (left), talks to the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, during a visit to China in May. Photograph: KCNA/EPA

With the signing of START with Russia there is every reason for Asia to believe the USA sincerely wants nuclear non-proliferation to increase while recognizing the deadly potential that a nuclear Korean Peninsula holds for everyone, not just the USA.

Do I believe China will hand North Korea intercontinental ballistic missile technology?

No.

Do I believe the North Koreans are capable of such weaponry? 

Maybe.  To date the long range and even short range missiles escapes the capacity of North Korea.  The real question is Iran and whether or not their technology is for sale to North Korea and other and will they sell that technology?  Will Iranian technology be enough to reach the USA?  It isn't to date.

Am I concerned about China having stealth technology?  Not entirely.  If China is more confident about protecting its borders and interest in Taiwan and can offer North Korea reassurances that they are safe within their alliance with China, then the entire global community is better served.  I see China's advanced technology as a measure to added global security, to a greater degree than not.  If China is a nation to contend with then Asia will be in a position from 'strength' rather than economic domination.  The paradigm changes and the likelihood of a greater peace and the advancement of non-proliferation will increase.

Countries with advanced weaponry don't have to negotiate any treaty as a means of peace if they outclass those they are negotiating with.  If China is a stronger nation, North Korea will be less likely to continue to fear the USA and its alliance with South Korea.  Then perhaps, North Korea will finally be open to discussing disarming the peninsula completely. 

However, the security China can offer North Korea isn't the entire picture.  The North Korean economy is still very stressed to support its people.

While the USA is correct to be protective of South Korea and its alliance with Japan and trade relations with Taiwan; I believe there is more 'breathing room' in regards to these assessments than one might initially think.  While any news of escalating armaments is a concern, the 'balance' to that gets more interesting when one realizes the ultimate assessment is 'balance of power' makes nuclear war very unlikely. 

I believe a stronger China, a more agile China will create a greater dynamic to peace and internal economic growth of China that will not be threatened by a stronger USA manufacturing sector as our small businesses reclaim our economy.

Defense is defense.  Aggression is an entirely different story.  I don't view China as an aggressor nation.  I believe they can be a strong partner in disarming the Korean Peninsula and bringing stability to the region.

Today, North Korea has no clear assurances its only ally could actually stop an invasion by the USA or South Korea, which explains why they are always moving toward nuclear weapons while depriving their nation from improving their standard of life for their people.


...Gates' remarks about North Korea signaled that the United States has grown increasingly concerned about a regime whose only major supporter in the region is China. While Gates said that he had thanked Hu for helping to rein in Pyongyang, which had a series of standoffs last year with U.S. ally South Korea, he made clear that he sees potential for the problem to escalate.
"With the North Koreans' continuing development of nuclear weapons and their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States, and we have to take that into account," said Gates, according to The Associated Press.
He added: "I don't think it's an immediate threat, but on the other hand I don't think it's a five-year threat."
There's no public evidence that North Korea has developed the sort of nuclear warhead that could be delivered by such missiles. However, the prospect of North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles - nuclear or otherwise - would likely transform the American posture toward the North and sharply reduce patience for Beijing's continued calls for more understanding with Pyongyang....