The more uncertain the USA crop yields, the more expensive they get.

Higher agricultural commodity prices, the higher the food prices. BUT, that isn't the worst part. What if the crops are yielding low. Insurance is interesting, but, it doesn't feed people. High commodity prices might drive food costs up, but, what if there isn't enough to produce food products in the first place.

BE GRATEFUL OF ALL THE NON-GMO PRODUCERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. They just might be the best friend to American consumers.

Wall Street Journal

May 30, 2019
By Joe Wallace

Crop prices (click here) are vaulting higher as massive disruption on U.S. farms raises concerns about the size and quality of this year’s harvest....

It is highly unusual for the USA to have these problems. We are often considered the bread basket of the world. That reality will taint predictions. The best indication is always THE STATE AGRICULTURAL AGENTS that know the farmers and the crops. Try talking to the folks that lend to farmers like "AgAmerica" (click here). 

May 6, 2019
By Andrew Heckt

Summary (click here)

- Agricultural commodities limping into the report.
- Soybeans and corn under pressure.
- Wheat is weak.
- Cotton edges lower.
- Animal proteins falter.

It is that time of the month again. If the prices of grains and most other agricultural commodities limped into the April WASDE report, they are crawling into the USDA's May release which is coming on May 10 at noon EST. There have been no new earth-shattering developments on trade between the US and China and a combination of better weather, a stronger dollar, and a more hawkish Fed likely combined to send price to lower levels in the grain, cotton, and animal protein futures markets over recent sessions.

We are at the very start of the growing season for the grains and cotton, and the grilling season will only commence at the end of this month during the Memorial Weekend holiday. The agricultural markets are taking a leap of faith that 2019 will be another year of enough products to meet the world's requirements for food. Meanwhile, each quarter the global population grows by approximately 20 million which means that there are more mouths to feed and the world has become addicted to bumper crops and increasing supplies of food products. With the demand side of the fundamental equation always growing, the direction of prices is now in the hands of Mother Nature as the weather will be the primary factor that determines if there are enough supplies to feed the world.

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) (click here) holds a basket of agricultural futures contracts and is trading near its multiyear lows.

The graph at this website shows a years worth of value. June of 2018 the value to this fund was $19.14. As of May 31, 2019 it is $16.62. Agricultural commodities is a very big deal. No one should be ignoring this trend.