August 16, 2009
2330
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES West Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop)\
Last week everyone was fixated on Hurricane Guillermo in the Pacific above. It is still there. Hawaii will probably some larger than average waves. Surfers will have a good time.
August 16, 2009
2117 gmt
Tropical Atlantic Ocean Map
There is another 'tropical wave' behind Bill. Bill could be headed for the South Carolina coast. Not as far north as Wilmington. I don't know about the velocity. I don't have a lot of confidence in higher velocities with northern moving storms. There isn't enough surface water vapor at those latitudes to support higher category storms. I'll venture a guess of Cat 1 - 2 to the South Carolina coast.
Not enough information regarding the new wave off Africa. It might be that Bill will dissipate quickly as it moves north. That would lend to higher velocity to the new tropical wave off Africa.
August 16, 2009
2230z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop)
This season is similar to 2007. The season started very late as the sun was traveling back toward the Southern Hemisphere. There were two late season hurricanes that devastated Central America. Both Dean and Felix manifested intoCat 5 storms using the water vapor off the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Both Dean and Felix started east of the Antilles to gain their higher level of vorticity.
There were two late season hurricanes that devastated Central America. Both Dean and Felix manifested intoCat 5 storms using the water vapor off the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Both Dean and Felix started east of the Antilles to gain their higher level of vorticity.
This year is a little different. The near shore storm in the Gulf of Mexico is not really new for this 'heated' troposphere. We have seen these 'near shore' storms before. They are powerful storms even as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1. The problem has been when the near shore storms occurred along the eastern USA they lingered and repeatedly battered the shore line. It was the temporal element that prolonged the damage to the shoreline.
It currently looks as though TS Claudette has the potential of being a prolonged storm at the Florida panhandle if it is pinched between a vortex system easily noted on water vapor to the east of Florida and a ridge of colder air from the north. Currently, it is that air ridge from the north that is fueling the water vapor as the two temperature air masses meet. The air turbulence along that ridge is probably signficiant.
These 'Heat' storms that manifest almost overnight are different than a '? regular ?' storm or regular hurricane in that they tend to oscillate. In other words they wax and wane in vorticity depending on available heat. So, even if Claudette seems to be moving on, it might 'skip' back again only to continue its dynamics. These unusual storms have to completely dissipate from any collective structure before citizens can let their guard down.Don't sell Ana short. Ana will probably follow the island chain into the Gulf. Once there Ana can take a more northwest path and make landfall over the Gulf Coast, possibly Louisana. There is a north west 'injection' system coming through the Yucatan Channel. If that air mass is still present when Ana finds the Gulf it will drive the storm northwest.
August 16, 2009
2140z
UNISYS Enhanced Infrared Satellite of southeast USA (click title to entry for 12 hour loop - thank you)
August 16, 2009
0916z
UNISYS Enhanced Infrared Satellite of southeast USA (click title to entry for 12 hour loop - thank you)
