By Nate Silver
...The informal model updates (click here) we published going as far back as March also had Republicans as 55 or 60 percent favorites.
To an extent, this stability reflects the noise-reducing features of the FiveThirtyEight model. Our program examines the polls for signs of statistical bias, and weighs them more heavily when they have larger sample sizes, better methodologies and better track records — which can reduce the impact of outliers. The FiveThirtyEight model is also fairly conservative in estimating the uncertainty associated with each race and the disposition of the Senate overall. At times in the past, the polls in most swing states have been biased in the same direction (either toward Democrats or Republicans).
But this degree of stability is unusual. In pretty much every election we’ve covered, the polls have more clearly broken toward one or another party by this point....
...This year has been different. While there’s been movement in individual states, it hasn’t been in a consistent direction....
The difference in the 'odds' of winning is the interest of the voters. In South Dakota particularly, the citizens there along with Native Americans have been successful in organizing and taking their information to the people. For that reason there is more of an interest in what the policy will be for all the lousy oil pipelines the petroleum industry wants to build. The industry keeps changing up on them. First it is the XL through the aquifer, then it is the XL through a corner of the aquifer as if that makes any difference to the contamination of water and now they want to rename the XL into segments of pipeline to inch their way across the Midwest. I think they have something like four separately named pipelines now.
But, what is new about this pipeline is the fact Eminent Domaine will be provided to Canada. Like, huh? Since when does a major right of way go to a foreign country regardless of being allies?
That said is the reality of the California experience, it's drought and the current contamination of it's aquifers. Of course it is the petroleum industry that contaminated it. So, more and more the concerned citizens of South Dakota are worried about their aquifer. If the trend in California keeps up the USA will be buying water through pipelines.
