US foreclosure filings up 71 percent in 3Q - I think the polls from AP and Zogby have a math factor tuned to the electoral votes and popular vote.

Those two polls trend that way.

There has to be something in their calculations that factor in the 'fractional' differences between popular and electoral college vote. I'm fairly sure that is what Zogby and AP are picking up. I don't believe they are outliers. That '1%' margin reported by AP today in favor of Obama is the 'electoral college' factor in their calculations. I don't believe that is reflective of the popular vote.

Somehow the component AP and Zogby use in relation to the 'reality' of the electoral vote which does not necessarily reflect the outcome of the popular vote is 'weighted' stronger than other 'popular' factors in their calculations. And they are correct in weighting it that way IF one wants to be the most correct in the outcome of a Presidential election. If they both did calculations without that 'weighting' factor (raw scores of popular vote polling) they would have trends in the popular vote like anyone else.

That is my take on it anyway.

Oct 23, 5:45 AM EDT
By ALAN ZIBEL AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of homeowners ensnared in the foreclosure crisis grew by more than 70 percent in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to data released Thursday.
Nationwide, nearly 766,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice from July through September, up 71 percent from a year earlier, said foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc.
By the end of the year, RealtyTrac expects more than a million bank-owned properties to have piled up on the market, representing around a third of all properties for sale in the U.S....