This is troubling news. Alabama was never going to be damaged by a deadly severe hurricane. There were a few computer lines that showed Dorian going into Alabama. There is much more than a computer line that goes into weather prediction.
This website reasonably discusses weather (click here), including the place where direct solar rays fall.
l. Solar Distance
2. Laditudinal Location
3. Air Pressure
4. Water Presence
There is an entirely different language used by meteorologists to illustrate what the weather is doing. One particular word is "wind shear." That has an impact on hurricanes.
National Weather Service Glossary (click here)
This glossary contains information on more than 2000 terms, phrases and abbreviations used by the NWS. Many of these terms and abbreviations are used by NWS forecasters to communicate between each other and have been in use for many years and before many NWS products were directly available to the public. It is the purpose of this glossary to aid the general public in better understanding NWS products.
Each one of those terms carries a clear understanding to what impacts weather. Weather prediction is not simple and when it comes to the USA National Weather Service, there is another word in the glossary, POPULATION EFFECTED.
The women and men that work for the National Weather Service always have in mind that their predictions effect the population of the USA. They also realize when weather prediction is made it carries with it expenses in using USA assets to protect people and their property. That also means a deep respect for people like Mayors, Governors and the National Guard. The decisions about predictions of the National Weather Service carries a great deal of brevity and the CORRECTNESS is vital.
When Dorian first raised concerns for landfall of the USA it was still uncertain, hence, the computer models were mostly the same but in that sameness, there were models that were all over the place. It is the JOB of CLEAR THINKING EXPERTS to sift through ALL the information, including the direct rays of the sun, and make their best prediction. When those factors were brought together, regardless of some computer models, Alabama did not fall into the "Cone of Uncertainty."
I stop to reflect on the correctness of the prediction of the National Weather Service and it did a remarkable job ONCE AGAIN.
President Trump is wrong. Very wrong. His wild ideas of where the prediction should have fallen are typical of his shoot from the hip attitude. I sometimes write about my observations, but, I do have credentials and training. I do not have the lab information the National Weather Service has and will NEVER claim to know what they know. I raise questions, not statements. I raise questions because I am not absolutely sure about those observations and statements. I can only hope to match the prediction ability of the National Weather Service. I am also anxious to save as many lives as possible and I do not hold back in commenting when that comment is not being heard otherwise.
The map President Trump showed with a marker to include Alabama was irresponsible. It was in retrospect to reality and served absolutely no purpose. The National Weather Service was clearly correct in their assessments, even when some of the directions of Dorian were a surprise. They incorporated the new information and went forward PROTECTING AS MANY LIVES POSSIBLE AND PRUDENTLY ADVISING GOVERNMENT DECISIONS MAKERS THAT WOULD DEPLOY ASSETS AVAILABLE TO THEM.
The weather happens to every one of us every day. It can be fun to talk about the weather. But, the talk has to stop when it highly insults the process of the National Weather Service and their very, very WISE predictions.
The country needs to realize it has one of the best predictions centers in the world. There is no reason to doubt their predictions. It is important that status stay intact to the future of the country.
September 6, 2019
By Seth Borenstein and Kevin Freking
Washington — A federal agency (click here) reversed course Friday on the question of whether President Donald Trump tweeted stale information about Hurricane Dorian potentially hitting Alabama, upsetting meteorologists around the country.
On Sunday, Trump had warned that Alabama, along with the Carolinas and Georgia, was "most likely to be hit (much) harder than anticipated."
The National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama, tweeted in response: "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east."
