This is an ocean temperature map. The temperature on the east and west side of Florida is nearly the same.
From a warming perspective, it would be better to have Dorian enter the Gulf and contain the heat it carries to an already warmed body of water, however, with a couple of vortexes in the northeast and north-central of North America it may find stability on the east coast.
There is also a cold air mass north of the USA decending to some extent that may push Dorian into a stalled profile.
The vortexes are heat transfer systems and like to carry hot air northward, however, Dorian is over hot water and will increase it's velocity, setting up a separation from the northeast vortex and will spin alone below a denser cold air mass north.
It is the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic season, HOWEVER, it is the first major storm that is actually carrying water vapor into a dry troposphere. Realizing this has been the status quo for the last few years, there is a far better than 50% chance Dorian will stall and deliver plenty of warm water to Florida.
Dorian will probably remain a category four as it approaches the Florida coast. After a stalled deposition of water vapor over or near Florida, there is a remote chance it will move northeast in cooperation of the two vortexes that exist now.
That is a very sketchy presentation at this point, but, these climate crisis storms are water loving and become puny once they reach land. The WATER DENSITY brought to the troposphere by Dorian will determine it's final track. Basically, Dorian is depositing water vapor into the troposphere and creating it's own path. As the water vapor increases in the troposphere around Dorian the storm will become more stable especially considering there is nothing but perfect OCEAN TEMPERATURE conditions for stalled storms.
THE DIAMETER of Dorian. As it increases the storm becomes more stable and stalled.
That is probably clear as mud.
Florida and the east coast up to the Chesapeake Bay needs to pay attention.
