Friday, September 04, 2015

Donald Trump needs to make a foreign policy speech and prepare for the rest of the debates. 

Given the other candidates and the intractable position of the House and Senate Republicans, the speech needs to at least touch on Iran, North Korea, Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and Cuba. I believe he has sufficiently discussed his focus with China and Mexico.

September 3, 2015
Contact Patrick Murphy

...When Republicans (click here) and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Donald Trump leads the pack at 30%, which is up 4 points from early August before the first debate. Ben Carson (18%) has increased his vote share by 13 points and now holds second place. Jeb Bush (8%) has dropped by 4 points and now stands in a tie for third with Ted Cruz (8%). Following behind are Marco Rubio (5%), Carly Fiorina (4%), and Mike Huckabee (4%). 

Scott Walker (3%), who held third place in Monmouth’s August poll, has dropped 8 points since then. Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul each get 2%. The remaining six candidates included in the poll score no higher than 1% each....  

...As with Monmouth’s August poll, Trump continues to dominate all Republican demographic groups in voter support, with Ben Carson now placing second in most cases:
Ideology – Trump (28%), Carson (20%), and Cruz (17%) are the top vote getters among very conservative voters; Trump (29%) leads Carson (21%) among somewhat conservative voters; and Trump (34%) has a commanding edge over Carson (14%) and Bush (11%) among moderate to liberal voters.
Tea Party – Tea Party supporters back Trump (36%) by a wide margin over Carson (19%) and Cruz (15%). Non-Tea Party supporters give Trump (28%) a narrower edge over Carson (17%).
Age– Trump (34%) has a clear lead over Carson (17%) among voters under age 50 as well as an advantage (28%) over Carson (18%), Cruz (11%), and Bush (10%) among those age 50 and older.
Gender– Trump holds a wide lead over Carson among men (37% to 18%) and a smaller lead among women (23% to 18%).

The Monmouth University Poll also found that GOP voter opinion of Donald Trump has ticked up another notch in the past month....