1020.18z
UNISYS West and North Hemispheric Water Vapor Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)
To the left of this image at the bottom corner is an air mass moving from west to east. It is a sizable air mass with what appears to be a significant amount of water vapor. As long as the system continues to receive water vapor there will be concern about severe weather. The water vapor system over Lower North America is stationary because there is little moving it except Coriolis.
...4. Discussion and summary (click here)
The spatial distributions of super cell - tornado parameters show distinct patterns that reflect the geography and synoptic climatology of each region. For example, MLCAPE is clearly greatest across the Great Plains in tornadic RM environments, with the largest values often 3000–4000 J kg–1or larger. By comparison, MLCAPE is typically <2000 J kg–1across the south eastern states in tornadic RM environments.Still, buoyancy can be large across the south eastern states in the more extreme events,such as the 27 April 2011 tornado out break across Mississippi and Alabama. MLCAPE for that event ranged from 2500–3500 J kg–1 for all of the Alabama grid-hour events, which is above the 90th percentile for significantly tornadic RMin this area (see Fig.3f)...
This is the citation:
Thompson, R. L., B. T.Smith, A. R. Dean, and P. T. Marsh, 2013:Spatial distributions of tornadic near-storm environments by convective mode. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor.,8(5),1–22
I appreciate the effort put into this article and it will be acknowledgment of the path, but, the next years going forward will carry greater volatility. Last year there were dual tornadoes that lasted for an extended period of time. Those tornadoes lasted hours. The damage could have been far worse if such an event or a faction of such an event occurred in more populated areas.
The high tropospheric feeder system extended across the entire of North America for this dual tornado system. Earth is having a terrible time getting rid of the heat. It is going to be a rough ride. Reading these articles is a way of PREPARING for what is coming, but, it is not a static situation. The potential to danger is exceptional. The need for expertise in weather prediction can't be understated if we are going to keep people alive.
In the most recent tornadoes we have witnessed not only a large upper tropospheric system, but, a feeder system pulling air masses from at least a half mile from the funnel on the ground which was able to topple a tractor trailer at that distance. It's getting rather worrisome. If the occurance with the tractor trailer was a one time incident I'd think differently, but, that fact has been repeated in two consecutive tornado events. The public is used to being able to watch these storms from a fairly short distance, that distance is extending.
There are tornado outbreaks in recent years where their used to be a rare F4. To more clearly illustrate the heat increments is to realize that severe Midwestern tornadoes were spinning while a vortex increased to a Tropical Storm in the Atlantic.
It has been my experience with these systems that the TRENDS start first as a marginal event but then becomes the majority of the outcomes. So, the idea tornado season and hurricane season will remain exclusively separate is unrealistic.
The TRIAD of weather was obvious with significant snow storms in the upper region of the USA and of course in Canada along with the tornadoes and hurricane. These marginal episodes will most likely become common in the years to come. Once the Arctic Ocean's ice was lost, the vortex became unstable. Whether politicians want to admit it or not, the CO2 density (my opinion) over the USA is what is inviting all the turbulence. It is where the heat is highest nearly chronically. These system are generated by that heat. Welcome to America.
