If the agreement with Iran limits the centrifuges to the number of Iran states it will need for domestic use, the ten year revisit would be more than sufficient to reasses the Iranian program to move out of domestic energy.
...There are a number of necessary steps (click here) toward making a relatively simple indigenous uranium nuclear bomb: mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication. Nuclear weapons require a specific type of uranium—U-235—which is very rare in nature, so a difficult and lengthy process is required to separate out U-235 from the much more common U-238 and accumulate it into enough material to form a bomb. In nature, uranium is only .7% U-235, and a generally understood minimum threshold for a nuclear weapon is that uranium must be "enriched" to 90% U-235. And this enrichment happens in minute quantities: raw uranium mined out of the ground is first milled into uranium oxide ("yellowcake"); then the uranium oxide is converted into a gas (uranium hexafluoride); then the uranium gas is put into centrifuge "cascades" (a series of centrifuges working together) that separate out the U-235; then the enriched uranium is collected and formed into sizable masses. The simplest nuclear weapon type, a "gun type" fission weapon, requires approximately 50 kg (110 lbs.) of highly enriched uranium, and would involve essentially shooting two HEU masses (25 kg each) at each other to create critical mass and so, a nuclear explosion....
Iran has scientists working in their nuclear interests. They are capable of moving forward toward a weapon if the country decided that is what they wanted, however, there is still the issue of building a larger capacity and manufacturing capacity to actually build weapons.
Ten years of global development of alternate energies and movements toward peace as well as the return of trade to Iran will result in a far different international profile of which most probably will be peaceful. If that is the case I would expect Iran to end it's nuclear weapons ambitions, instead invest in it's people and domestic interests. Ten years is a long time and the global community has real opportunity ahead of them to seek peace rather than war.
Such a profile to move into peace could manifest in ten years. When the Iranian talks resume in ten years there is a very good chance they will have decided their domestic use best serves the country and they would move away from any war capacity and into compliance with the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. In the next ten years many countries with nuclear capacity that no longer serves them also in violation of the NPT may very well place the global community back in compliance with the treaty. That is wishful thinking to some, but, it is possible.
It may be the Iranian talks will be a blueprint for the future.
Of these three isotopes, (click here) only uranium-235 reacts with a neutron and
undergoes nuclear fission in a conventional nuclear reactor. To have a
sustained fission reaction there must be enough U-235 so that at least
one of the neutrons it produces in fission will likely strike another
U-235 nucleus. The needed concentration of U-235 must be about 3 % of
the total uranium.
Uranium ore has an elemental composition of U3O8, 8 oxygen atoms for every 3 uranium atoms in the material. It is not a simple molecule though. The ore is relatively plentiful in the US, Canada, Australia, and South Africa. When purified from the other rock it has a yellow color and is called yellowcake. Because only 0.72 % of the uranium in yellowcake is U-235, it is not suitable as a nuclear fuel....
This diagram doesn't relate the size of centrifuges. They are very large. This is not a technology that is cheap. It takes a considerable amount of money to research, build and produce even the far lower quality of uranium for power production.
The quality of the uranium is important to the production of any usable product. If the centrifuge produces somewhere around 5 to 6 percent of enriched material it can fuel a nuclear reactor. Nuclear subs on the other hand require about 15% give or take a few percentage points. But, nuclear weapons require 90% to become unstable enough to cause the kind of chaotic reaction that kills millions of people.
Even if the isotope is obtained for one weapon, there is the issue of the bomb. The nuclear material doesn't explode by itself in the massive explosion witnessed in many 1950s military videos. The bomb has to work to coordinate the mixture within it's hull to create such a chaotic reaction that causes the atoms to move outside their molecular order.
I am thinking the amount needed for a bomb is about 30 or 35 kilograms of highly enriched material (that is the 90% product). There is 2.2 pounds per kilogram. So, about 65 to 70 pounds of the nuclear isotope.
I am not going to insult Iran by stating their scientists are not capable of assembling a nuclear weapon, I am certain they can. However, that ability is years away. I don't believe Iran is at the cusp of bomb assembly. Israel frequently states Iran is within a month or so in creating a bomb. I think that is inaccurate. Iran still has some centrifuges that are not assembled and/or don't work well enough to even produce isotopes for power generation.
The centrifuges have a difficult task. They have to take this yellowcake fluid and spin it to remove minor amounts of the uranium used for power generation. At about 5% of the fluid in the container that has been centrifuged out can begin a nuclear reaction to boil water and produce steam generation.
The isotopes don't give up their neutrons easily. The centrifuge spins out the heavier material first. That is the material with the higher weight of any of the isotopes. The difference between these isotopes is only one or two neutrons in their molecular weight. It takes a long time for centrifuges to produce the isotopes needed for any one of the products used today across the globe.
The free neutron has a mass of about 1.675×10−27 kg. That was 10 to the negative 27 in weight.
The centrifuge has to spin long enough to have the higher weight isotope to find it's way out of the spinning mixture to a place where it can be harvested. This is also not a matter of flipping a switch. The preparation of the centrifuge is important and takes some time to begin the process.
I have no doubt Iran's Supreme Leader rather have the image of being very powerful, but, that is more or less muscle flexing and not a good reflection of the Iranian's readiness to nuclear weapons.
To date, Iran has put one cascade of 164 centrifuges online as proof of their enrichment abilities, and according to international testing, they have enriched a minute amount of uranium to 4.6%—a level that is usable for nuclear power but not nuclear weapons. At this rate, it will take Iran more than 13 years to collect enough HEU material for a weapon. However, Iran has announced its intention to begin building a 3,000 centrifuge cascade by the end of 2006. Estimates from experts say that Iran may be able to assemble 1,500 centrifuges by the end of 2006, meaning that it will be at least the end of 2007 before Iran could assemble 3,000. However, Iran is not known to have the parts for additional centrifuges beyond the initial 1,000-1,200, so they will need to procure these parts internationally or else build them domestically. Both of these options will likely pose substantial roadblocks for Iran, so although the US State Department estimates that with 3,000 centrifuges Iran could enrich enough material for a bomb in nine months, practically speaking, this will be very tough for them to accomplish....
For a long time I have heard how soon Iran will have nuclear capacity. It has invested a great deal of money to build a nuclear power plant and there are other nuclear facilities to produce uranium for the reactor. But, if anyone bothered to examine the sheer size of the USA facilities for it's enrichment it is fairly easy to discern the Iranian program doesn't even come close.
I don't want to appear as though I consent to Iran's potential to a nuclear weapon. I don't. It is an illegal activity of that country. The only powers on Earth to have legal nuclear capacity are the five permanent members of the UN Security Council; any other capacity is illegal. Iran is a signator to the NPT.
I do believe the Iranian capacity to 'break out' and have a nuclear weapon exists at least by a year if not longer. The one year mark is to bring about a standard to measure the capacity of Iran to produce weapons. It is a reasonable safety zone. There has to be some measure to decide whether or not Iran is a rouge country producing nuclear weapons.
Containing the number of centrifuges is correct. A program completely peaceful is going to require far less capacity than that of the USA. Iran has limited need for nuclear power generation simply because it is a smaller country with a smaller population. There is a limit to the need for producing an isotope in quantities needed for nuclear power. The number of functioning centrifuges are really set and not an unknown need.
If a country were to produce a nuclear weapon how many would it need to carry out a nuclear strike? It is a reasonable question with an exact answer. How many nuclear weapons does a country need to have a successful nuclear weapon program?
Will one weapon be all that is necessary? Two? Ten?
Realize that once a weapon is set into strike another country, there is a reaction to that aggression. There are weapons returned to the aggressive country.
Now, how many nuclear weapons are needed to carry out a successful nuclear strike? And. How much is that going to cost?
A country needs far more than one to carry out a successful strike. It needs more than two and it costs a lot of money. That is why countries have alliances. They can't afford that capacity and they don't have the ability to bring about a substantial arsenal to protect itself as well as allies.
The fear is rhetorical. The topic is very complex. But, it is necessary if we are to enforce the NPT and remove such danger from the lives on Earth.
Nuclear weapons are completely stupid.
...There are a number of necessary steps (click here) toward making a relatively simple indigenous uranium nuclear bomb: mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication. Nuclear weapons require a specific type of uranium—U-235—which is very rare in nature, so a difficult and lengthy process is required to separate out U-235 from the much more common U-238 and accumulate it into enough material to form a bomb. In nature, uranium is only .7% U-235, and a generally understood minimum threshold for a nuclear weapon is that uranium must be "enriched" to 90% U-235. And this enrichment happens in minute quantities: raw uranium mined out of the ground is first milled into uranium oxide ("yellowcake"); then the uranium oxide is converted into a gas (uranium hexafluoride); then the uranium gas is put into centrifuge "cascades" (a series of centrifuges working together) that separate out the U-235; then the enriched uranium is collected and formed into sizable masses. The simplest nuclear weapon type, a "gun type" fission weapon, requires approximately 50 kg (110 lbs.) of highly enriched uranium, and would involve essentially shooting two HEU masses (25 kg each) at each other to create critical mass and so, a nuclear explosion....
Iran has scientists working in their nuclear interests. They are capable of moving forward toward a weapon if the country decided that is what they wanted, however, there is still the issue of building a larger capacity and manufacturing capacity to actually build weapons.
Ten years of global development of alternate energies and movements toward peace as well as the return of trade to Iran will result in a far different international profile of which most probably will be peaceful. If that is the case I would expect Iran to end it's nuclear weapons ambitions, instead invest in it's people and domestic interests. Ten years is a long time and the global community has real opportunity ahead of them to seek peace rather than war.
Such a profile to move into peace could manifest in ten years. When the Iranian talks resume in ten years there is a very good chance they will have decided their domestic use best serves the country and they would move away from any war capacity and into compliance with the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. In the next ten years many countries with nuclear capacity that no longer serves them also in violation of the NPT may very well place the global community back in compliance with the treaty. That is wishful thinking to some, but, it is possible.
It may be the Iranian talks will be a blueprint for the future.
Uranium ore has an elemental composition of U3O8, 8 oxygen atoms for every 3 uranium atoms in the material. It is not a simple molecule though. The ore is relatively plentiful in the US, Canada, Australia, and South Africa. When purified from the other rock it has a yellow color and is called yellowcake. Because only 0.72 % of the uranium in yellowcake is U-235, it is not suitable as a nuclear fuel....
This diagram doesn't relate the size of centrifuges. They are very large. This is not a technology that is cheap. It takes a considerable amount of money to research, build and produce even the far lower quality of uranium for power production.The quality of the uranium is important to the production of any usable product. If the centrifuge produces somewhere around 5 to 6 percent of enriched material it can fuel a nuclear reactor. Nuclear subs on the other hand require about 15% give or take a few percentage points. But, nuclear weapons require 90% to become unstable enough to cause the kind of chaotic reaction that kills millions of people.
Even if the isotope is obtained for one weapon, there is the issue of the bomb. The nuclear material doesn't explode by itself in the massive explosion witnessed in many 1950s military videos. The bomb has to work to coordinate the mixture within it's hull to create such a chaotic reaction that causes the atoms to move outside their molecular order.
I am thinking the amount needed for a bomb is about 30 or 35 kilograms of highly enriched material (that is the 90% product). There is 2.2 pounds per kilogram. So, about 65 to 70 pounds of the nuclear isotope.
I am not going to insult Iran by stating their scientists are not capable of assembling a nuclear weapon, I am certain they can. However, that ability is years away. I don't believe Iran is at the cusp of bomb assembly. Israel frequently states Iran is within a month or so in creating a bomb. I think that is inaccurate. Iran still has some centrifuges that are not assembled and/or don't work well enough to even produce isotopes for power generation.
The centrifuges have a difficult task. They have to take this yellowcake fluid and spin it to remove minor amounts of the uranium used for power generation. At about 5% of the fluid in the container that has been centrifuged out can begin a nuclear reaction to boil water and produce steam generation.
The isotopes don't give up their neutrons easily. The centrifuge spins out the heavier material first. That is the material with the higher weight of any of the isotopes. The difference between these isotopes is only one or two neutrons in their molecular weight. It takes a long time for centrifuges to produce the isotopes needed for any one of the products used today across the globe.
The free neutron has a mass of about 1.675×10−27 kg. That was 10 to the negative 27 in weight.
The centrifuge has to spin long enough to have the higher weight isotope to find it's way out of the spinning mixture to a place where it can be harvested. This is also not a matter of flipping a switch. The preparation of the centrifuge is important and takes some time to begin the process.
I have no doubt Iran's Supreme Leader rather have the image of being very powerful, but, that is more or less muscle flexing and not a good reflection of the Iranian's readiness to nuclear weapons.
To date, Iran has put one cascade of 164 centrifuges online as proof of their enrichment abilities, and according to international testing, they have enriched a minute amount of uranium to 4.6%—a level that is usable for nuclear power but not nuclear weapons. At this rate, it will take Iran more than 13 years to collect enough HEU material for a weapon. However, Iran has announced its intention to begin building a 3,000 centrifuge cascade by the end of 2006. Estimates from experts say that Iran may be able to assemble 1,500 centrifuges by the end of 2006, meaning that it will be at least the end of 2007 before Iran could assemble 3,000. However, Iran is not known to have the parts for additional centrifuges beyond the initial 1,000-1,200, so they will need to procure these parts internationally or else build them domestically. Both of these options will likely pose substantial roadblocks for Iran, so although the US State Department estimates that with 3,000 centrifuges Iran could enrich enough material for a bomb in nine months, practically speaking, this will be very tough for them to accomplish....
For a long time I have heard how soon Iran will have nuclear capacity. It has invested a great deal of money to build a nuclear power plant and there are other nuclear facilities to produce uranium for the reactor. But, if anyone bothered to examine the sheer size of the USA facilities for it's enrichment it is fairly easy to discern the Iranian program doesn't even come close.
I don't want to appear as though I consent to Iran's potential to a nuclear weapon. I don't. It is an illegal activity of that country. The only powers on Earth to have legal nuclear capacity are the five permanent members of the UN Security Council; any other capacity is illegal. Iran is a signator to the NPT.
I do believe the Iranian capacity to 'break out' and have a nuclear weapon exists at least by a year if not longer. The one year mark is to bring about a standard to measure the capacity of Iran to produce weapons. It is a reasonable safety zone. There has to be some measure to decide whether or not Iran is a rouge country producing nuclear weapons.
Containing the number of centrifuges is correct. A program completely peaceful is going to require far less capacity than that of the USA. Iran has limited need for nuclear power generation simply because it is a smaller country with a smaller population. There is a limit to the need for producing an isotope in quantities needed for nuclear power. The number of functioning centrifuges are really set and not an unknown need.
If a country were to produce a nuclear weapon how many would it need to carry out a nuclear strike? It is a reasonable question with an exact answer. How many nuclear weapons does a country need to have a successful nuclear weapon program?
Will one weapon be all that is necessary? Two? Ten?
Realize that once a weapon is set into strike another country, there is a reaction to that aggression. There are weapons returned to the aggressive country.
Now, how many nuclear weapons are needed to carry out a successful nuclear strike? And. How much is that going to cost?
A country needs far more than one to carry out a successful strike. It needs more than two and it costs a lot of money. That is why countries have alliances. They can't afford that capacity and they don't have the ability to bring about a substantial arsenal to protect itself as well as allies.
The fear is rhetorical. The topic is very complex. But, it is necessary if we are to enforce the NPT and remove such danger from the lives on Earth.
Nuclear weapons are completely stupid.
