January 16, 2016
A former American ambassador (click here) subtitled the book he wrote about his experiences in Nigeria Dancing on the Brink. “The federal government has failed to provide basic security for its citizens,” he wrote, “and has lost its monopoly on violence, two basic attributes of a sovereign state.”
John Campbell ended his study of a country he both admired and deplored with some hopeful words about the future. But five years after those words were written, Nigeria, facing a northern insurgency which has grown in size and viciousness, and coming up to elections which could go chaotically wrong, still teeters on that dangerous edge. The threat from Boko Haram is only the most dramatic aspect of a situation in which almost every line on the chart of national stability is heading in the wrong direction. Falling oil prices are eroding government revenue, leading to raids on the sovereign wealth fund and pointing to a not too distant moment when the federal authorities may be unable to pay those who work for them or even to maintain essential services. And this is in an energy-rich country where most regions are, for example, already without reliable electricity supplies, something disastrous for both industry and modern agriculture....
There is an election coming up in Nigeria. The country is finally down to elections with only two parties. The parties are divided along ethnic and religious differences. President Johnathan is suspected of corruption and his opponent, General Muhammadu Buhari is considered inarticulate. However, the General has a reputation of being honest and the best intentioned of all it's military leaders.
The Nigerian forces lack uniforms in some instances and are viewed as ineffective. With divisions politically along ethnic and religious lines there is always the concern by most observers another Rawanda lies around the corner if Nigeria's resources are stretched too far and leadership is made to make choices that would protect some people, but, not all. Obviously, in the case of Boka Harem there are no definitive choices to stop the killing. Boka Harem is exerting unmitigated violence. That in itself could mean many things, but, in the beginning the girls were suppose to become their wives and fulfill their lives with children. But, the reality of months later is very different. Now, the girls have become the weapon of choice.
Very strange and almost demands speculation of the stability of the regime.
