Berkeley Lab scientist develops way to predict where climates will go as temperatures rise (click here)
May 5, 2013
510-486-4019 dakrotz@lbl.gov
New Berkeley Lab research offers a way to envision a warmer future.
It maps how Earth’s myriad climates—and the ecosystems that depend on
them—will move from one area to another as global temperatures rise.
The approach foresees big changes for one of the planet’s great carbon sponges....
...But the Berkeley Lab research tells a different story. The planet’s boreal forests won’t expand poleward. Instead, they’ll shift
poleward. The difference lies in the prediction that as boreal
ecosystems follow the warming climate northward, their southern
boundaries will be overtaken by even warmer and drier climates better
suited for grassland.
And that’s a key difference. Grassland stores a lot of carbon in its soil, but it accumulates at a much slower rate than is lost from diminishing forests.
“I found that the boreal ecosystems ringing the globe will be pushed north and replaced in their current location by what’s currently to their south. In some places, that will be forest, but in other places it will be grassland,” says Charles Koven, a scientist in Berkeley Lab’s Earth Sciences Division who conducted the research.
“Most Earth system models don’t predict this, which means they overestimate the amount of carbon that high-latitude vegetation will store in the future,” he adds....
The carbon sinks of the north will shift north and the prairie land will take it's place. As the lands become more parched and ecosystems change, Earth's capacity to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide becomes less.
The desert is not a carbon sink.
May 5, 2013
510-486-4019 dakrotz@lbl.gov
It’s difficult to imagine how a degree or
two of warming will affect a location. Will it rain less? What will
happen to the area’s vegetation?
The approach foresees big changes for one of the planet’s great carbon sponges....
...But the Berkeley Lab research tells a different story. The planet’s boreal forests won’t expand poleward. Instead, they’ll shift
poleward. The difference lies in the prediction that as boreal
ecosystems follow the warming climate northward, their southern
boundaries will be overtaken by even warmer and drier climates better
suited for grassland.And that’s a key difference. Grassland stores a lot of carbon in its soil, but it accumulates at a much slower rate than is lost from diminishing forests.
“I found that the boreal ecosystems ringing the globe will be pushed north and replaced in their current location by what’s currently to their south. In some places, that will be forest, but in other places it will be grassland,” says Charles Koven, a scientist in Berkeley Lab’s Earth Sciences Division who conducted the research.
“Most Earth system models don’t predict this, which means they overestimate the amount of carbon that high-latitude vegetation will store in the future,” he adds....
The carbon sinks of the north will shift north and the prairie land will take it's place. As the lands become more parched and ecosystems change, Earth's capacity to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide becomes less.
The desert is not a carbon sink.
