Monday, March 24, 2014

Families are missing.

#530slide

There are 176 reports of people missing as the search continues in the mile-wide mudslide in Snohomish County. 

By P. SOLOMON BANDA and PHUONG LE
Associated Press
Updated 6:56 pm, Monday, March 24, 2014 

...Authorities said (click here) they were looking for more than 100 people who had not been heard from since the disaster about 55 miles northeast of Seattle. They predicted that the number of missing would decline as more people are found safe. But the startling initial length of the list added to the anxieties two days after a mile-wide layer of soft earth crashed onto a cluster of homes at the bottom of a river valley.

"The situation is very grim," Snohomish County Fire District 21 Chief Travis Hots said, stressing that authorities are still in rescue mode and are holding out hope. But he noted: "We have not found anyone alive on this pile since Saturday."...

USGS has programs as well Washington State to seek the potential for landslides. Often the Washington State landslides coincide with deforestation. Deforestation has been a severe issue in Washington State for a long time.

This is a map from a 2011 study. The deforested areas are noted in dark green dots.

Landslide Occurrences in Logged Areas of Washington State (click here)

The picture above of the landslide area shows significant forest cover, however, it also shows significant amounts of dead pines in the area of the slide. Given that, it appears less like deforestation so much as insect damage.

Influenceof Landscape pattern (click here) on Regional Distribution of Mountain Pine Beetle: Application of Terrain Analysis in the Rocky Mountain Foothills of Northeastern British Columbia.

The Mountain Pine Beetle is not the only pest to these forests that would cause pine tree death.

Trees are one of the strategies to stabilize hillsides. The biggest indicator of potential landslides are large rain storms. Last year was a bad year in Colorado. There were torrential rains and landslides resulted more than once in that state.

The USGS has been conducting assessments of the land in hopes of creating a prediction potential.

Landslide Inventory Pilot Project (click here)

Currently, the preliminary framework consists of a website featuring both technical and socioeconomic landslide information, from individual state surveys and the U.S. Geological Survey and relevant information from other sources. The primary organizing entity is The Landslide Inventory Steering Committee, composed of members of USGS and State Geological Surveys and other state agencies, which will guide the growth, development, and oversight of a national landslide inventory database website....

This is an example of the outcome to the study.

Landslide danger in Bay Area high, new map reveals (click here)

Peter Fimrite, Chronicle Staff Writer 
Published 4:00 am, Thursday, May 19, 2011

...The map of California's most landslide-prone areas is an attempt by the Geological Survey to determine the most vulnerable spots in the event of an epic superstorm, known as an ARk storm, which scientists warned about earlier this year.

"The goal in this was to develop a scenario for a major storm," said Chris Wills, the Geological Survey's supervising geologist. "We felt it was important to get this basic information out so people can look at what are the most susceptible areas."

The map is the most detailed analysis of landslides that has ever been compiled in California. It shows that the North Coast between Sonoma County and Oregon and the Coast Range between San Francisco and Los Angeles are the most susceptible areas in the state. About two-thirds of Marin and Sonoma counties are categorized as high-hazard areas. The Santa Cruz Mountains and the East Bay hills are also highly susceptible to landslides, according to the map....

To the credit of Washington State Forests and Fish there is a active advocacy for responsible forest practices.

Using modern scientific methods, (click here) private forest landowners have developed ways to identify areas of greatest risk and avoid timber harvest in these areas. Landslides are detrimental to private forest landowners, resulting in lost trees and damage to property. Forest landowners have a vested interest in preventing landslides....

There are other methods of stabilizing a hillside, but, in all honesty in cases like this the retaining wall would be tumbled in the landslide. This was massive.

Rainfall is mostly probably the culprit, however, the degraded pine forest due to possible insect infestation and damage was the precursor to this tragedy. Landowners and homeowners need to decide if the hillside near their home appears to be suspect to instability. If hillsides have degraded forests there needs to be awareness to the community in public service announcements. THEN in the case of severe rain, the people need to take shelter until the storm is over. Just because there isn't flooding to damage homes and endanger the lives inside; it doesn't mean there isn't danger. 

Given the continuing history of landslides in states with these types of hillsides, with or without previous history of landslides, the public awareness is prudent and not trivial. I am thinking the "Emergency Warning Service" can be accessed when severe weather and large rain fall is expected. There needs to be safe shelter to move people to leave their homes until all is clear. If the states are so inclined they have to keep in mind people often have pets that are part of the family and need accommodations with or near them, too.

This phenomena is not a one time occurrence. This tragedy will continue with the severe conditions currently being experienced in the USA. Vulnerable places need to develop strategies for dangerous times.