Consensus forecasts suggest (click here) that cyclone Lehar will hit Andhra Pradesh coast as a full-blooded ‘very severe cyclone’ in the next four to five days.
Internationally, it will be classified as number three on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale for storm strength. It is only one spin away from being called class-topping super cyclone.
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
A storm of this strength can cause total destruction of thatched houses and extensive damage to kutcha houses. There can be potential threat from flying objects....
At first Lehar was believed to be fairly mild (Tropical Storm), but, that is changing the longer it remains over the ocean. 100 kilometers per hour (Equivalent to Category 1 hurricane) winds are now expected.
Date: 23-25 NOV 2013
Cyclone-1 LEHAR
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 8.10 97.10 11/23/06Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 8.70 96.60 11/23/12Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
3 9.50 95.50 11/23/18Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
4 9.80 95.20 11/24/00Z 35 - TROPICAL STORM
5 10.30 94.30 11/24/06Z 45 - TROPICAL STORM
6 10.90 93.30 11/24/12Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
7 11.70 92.90 11/24/18Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
8 12.10 91.90 11/25/00Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
9 12.30 91.30 11/25/06Z 65 - CYCLONE-1
...FLEET-FOOTED
Earlier forecasts by some weather models had suggested that Lehar may take a bow before closing in and weaken a round before making landfall.But that scenario is being ruled out with the fleet-footed (lateral speed of 20 km/hr over water on Sunday) cyclone forcing itself into the open Bay of Bengal waters by Monday.Environment at the ground and upper level is decidedly benign for the ‘storm tower’ to build and gather strength rapidly.Lehar is forecast to attain the level of a very severe cyclone as early as Monday and will spare no punches when it barrels into the coast....
