Current US recession (click here) is severe using all type of economic indicators. Shap falls in wealth, in private consumption, in residencial investments, in equity prices or high increase in unemployement and in government consumption. Compared with another historical crisis, present US recessions is worst than median of previous recessions, it’s clear.
In recent months, the 'tea leaf reading' of these indicators have been mixed and unclear. There is a lot going on in the USA. If one accepts the dynamics 'at work' on the USA economy are complex, including the collapse not just of an economy but of the corruption that existed within it, then the indicators are going to be 'odd.'
The traditional indicators should be scrutinized to the relevence of actually assessing the recovery of the USA economy. We have noted from many sectors 'the reporting' of how the economy is picking up. Those reports are mostly 'from the street' and 'local experience.'
The housing and construction indicators are worthless. These markets are saturated from the housing bubble and commercial property is becoming more and more worthless. Housing is beginning to take on a positive movement in value 'as an investment,' but in the majority of USA markets there was a 'net loss' by most homeowners, hence the foreclosures and personal bankruptcies.
One of the inticators ignored by most economists is the turbulence created by irresponsible political pandering and the 'chronic campaign.' It does not add to a clear path for the country nor the recovery. When newly elected officials are all too willing to play politics with 'real issues' of budget and spending without taking 'the legislative process' seriously it will impact any economic predictions. There is a lot of uncertainty with the bizarre political agenda currently of the USA House of Representatives.
It is for that reason there has to be a clear delineation between the issues of budget, deficit and debt. There has to be a clear separation of entitlements and their remedy and the current budget of the USA.
Any change, if necessary 'in perspective of economic recovery, in the entitlements of the USA is completely separate legislation, should not be attached to any budget or spending measure and treated with the respect and reverence it deserves. These are the lives Americans, their Golden Years and a huge 'stable base' of the USA economy. The entitlements deserve separate debate, serious reflection and 'proven' need and outcomes.
So, in the future I would expect the country's dialogue to address the economy, the USA budget, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as completely separate subjects, otherwise, there is no use in a dialogue of deception. Now is there?
WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON Feb 17 (Reuters) - A drop in building permits (click title to entry - thank you) and a soft labor market held back the U.S. economic recovery in January, according to a private group's index of economic indicators, released on Thursday.The Conference Board's measure of leading indicators rose 0.1 percent to 112.3 in January, following a downwardly revised 0.8 percent gain in December.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent rise for January....
