1. The polls are not fully accurate because while they test Reid versus any of the Republicans running, they don't also include third party and other candidates expected to be on the ballot. Up to eight candidates are expected on the ballot.
2. Third party candidates can be very influential and take votes from candidates. Getting over 10 percent of the vote isn't unheard of and in an anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic year, those voters might steal votes away from the Republican competing against other conservative or Tea Party activists.
3. Nevada allows a "None of these candidates" vote which might also attract anti-incumbent protest votes while Reid's core remains dedicated to the Democrat.
4. With so much competition, Reid doesn't need to win 50 percent of the vote, especially if the "none" and Tea Party options collect some 20 percent of the vote.
