There is a fair amount of activity in the Gulf of Mexico today.

I'll take the conservative approach and continue to estimate that "Bill" will follow a path along the islands. It is very near the Lesser Antilles already. If "Bill" starts to swing north it will lose its velocity. Central Presssures are at 963 and falling. I don't know, I think we still have a chance to see a repeat of the late season of 2007 with this storm.

August 18, 2009
1415z
UNISYS water vapor GOES East satellite (click title to entry for 12 hour loop)

Add "Bill" to the mix with a still burgeoning tropical system again seemingly consolidating off the African coast and there is a very active troposphere trying to rid itself of heat into its oceans.

August 18, 2009

1217gmt

Tropical Atlantic Ocean Satellite

"Ana" is still a diffuse storm system now over Cuba. And htere is a clock-wise circulation system over the Gulf which is assisting in an accumulation of between Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. I don't believe any of these storms can be completely discounted as minor.

August 18, 2009
1443 gmt
Gulf of Mexico Satellite