September 4, 2006.
0130z.
Enhanced Infrared Satellite.
The jet stream is making an interesting appearance about the time the equatorial air is displaced as well. For sometime the jet stream has been over taken by the vortices, today it is the other way around. The vortices are still there but there is enough abatement of the cycle to allow a noted return of the jet.
In the past I have been optimistic that the abatement was a permanent reversal. What transpired over days was hemispheric oscillation that amounted to a greater maximum of turbulence. With the drought of the continent easily noted just below the Arctic Circle (over North America that is) it is no wonder that the weather patterns have seemed a bit kinder. There is little water to cause storms.
Noted below the jet stream in the central Atlantic is a lot of turbulence off Africa. We'll see how these manifest. I am somewhat doubtful there will be enough humidity to create a substantial storm this year. Reason to be concerned.
I believe it was NOAA that anticipated a very active season with more record setting circumstances. They have backed off that. There has been a lot of destruction globally by fires of carbon sinks/forests. That might have contributed to the hotter surface from earlier forecasts of last year. It's all exponential. A tree is destroyed by fire and the carbon enters the troposphere. That is compounded by the fact that tree is no longer available for carbon absorption. So, consequently the planet's heat index goes up considerably with loss of such vast amounts of forest.
I don't want to say NOAA's models are ineffective. They did well with the last storm and they will no doubt continue to be reliable. I think the change in direction of prediction of this season is due to an increasing warming pattern enhanced by human activity that destroys biotic mass and causes large deposits of carbon dioxide to the troposphere.
Everyone recognizes the concept of 'tipping point.' Well, it is my estimation the 'tipping point' for a worsening warming pattern is so obsure to most scientific computer models that they aren't as prepared to deal with it. Super computers do the best they can but this is a unique pattern for Earth and I keep stating that regardless of anyone who indicates otherwise. There has never been before this many people on Earth with consumer habits that are destructive to the biotic Earth. There is no super computer that can accurately predict this. They don't have that capacity. What NOAA can do is seek to provide the best information given new data.
It was never the prediction centers problem with Katrina. Every one was right on the mark. It was the government that was supposed to oversee the disaster that dropped the ball. Predicting storms/hurricanes/ typhoons is a much different science than seeking to understand the destiny of Earth under a Human Induced Global Warming pattern.
