September 22, 2006.
This is the satellite picture of the Atlantic in 1998 during the height of that years storm season. It was accompanied by a profound drought. As I have noted before this model has proven to hold mostly true in this season as well.
Currently, there are two large storms and a promise of a third off Africa. The difference between the year 1998 and this year is the amount of available humidity globally at 'sea surface' to allow the absorbtion of heat by water. Water has a huge heat capacity, but, if that water only exists as vapor at sea level there will not be hugely dynamic storms.
Currently, the storm known as Debbie has not exceeded the standard for Tropical Storm at now 50 knots per hour. Presently, the storm known as five, now remaned as Ernesto, has just obtained hurricane status. It is mostly correct to believe Ernesto will achieve a far higher velocity. The angle of the sun moving into autumn will supply a lot of energy at that latitude. The storm is also approaching the very hot Caribbean Sea. If the mixing of sun, humidity and sea amounts to the dynamics of 'high octane fuel,' a higher acceleration is likely of 'Ernesto.' It is only prudent to be preparing for the worst. If there isn't enough moisture to help this storm reach higher velocity as the surface temperatures are too hot for water condensed around particles to sustain then this storm will not reach high velocity. What instead we are looking at is a very dry Earth with Arctic vortices running out of reserve to cool the planet.
On the upside we may be witnessing a 'healing' Earth from Human Induced Global Warming. We could be doing enough to give our planet relief. I have stated from the beginning, we could 'buy time' against global warming IF we returned to carbon dioxide levels before just 2002. With any luck, we have all achieved that. If we have, then we can completely stave off the demise of Earth as we know it and have come to love it. By slowing and/or stopping the vortices we have rolled back the dynamics of species demise. This in no way is a complete 'escape' from converting our lives to one of benevolence which sustains life without destroying every other creature that inhabits this planet with us. We still need to make huge investments into our infrastruture to remove our current energy policies heavily dependant on oil and carbon based fuels.
On the downside, if this is an indication of a higher heat surface on Earth then we are in trouble. One of the most startling realities to support this speculation will be to note any decrease in the number of storms and/or their velocity in the West Pacific (click on). In most years there with only a rare exception there is anywhere from 33 to 44 storms per year. The reason there are more storms of the Pacific is because of it's size and opportunity because of that smooth and large surface to build greater heat of those storms. If there is a decrease of any significance in the West Pacific, then there is a global trend that could support an understanding of an emergency in Climate Change.
I'll keep up the daily satellites of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Tropical Atlantic and Northwest Hemisphere. After today no archival images will appear unless something unanticipated occurs. I reserve judgment about the 'trend' in Human Induced Global Warming until the end of these seasons. I currently remain optimistic.
