The biggest 'trigger' is Bush's big and irreverent mouth stating the Shia Crescent is a huge security issue for the region.
Some of the wisest words can be found in The Jordan Times this morning in that it treats Harini's death and the Shi'ite majority in Iraq as separate entities of the Middle East and it's persistent press for peace. They are correct in that what happened in Lebanon yesterday has nothing to do with Iraq regardless the childish rantings of an insecure Cheney/Bush occupation in Iraq.
The persistant bravery of King Abdullah is reflected in his words as stated from The Jordan Times:
"King Abdullah told Lebanese President Emile Lahoud over the telephone that Hariri was a "great statesman, who has remarkable contributions to the building of modern Lebanon and the development of its economy."
The King said Jordan will stand by Lebanon in such difficult circumstances to help maintain its national unity, sovereignty and security."
To understand why that is such a profound statement all one has to realize is President Emile Lahoud is primarily a Syrian in control of Lebanon. To realize that is to understand that Mr. Hariri resigned from the role of Prime Minister of Lebanon in October after President Emile Lahoud received backing from Syria to extend his place as President in Lebanon. After resigning in October Mr. Hariri became involved with opposition forces within Lebanon (which are considered to be destabilizing forces by any other government authority) and a call for the complete withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon and it's politics. In other words, Mr. Harizi now saw Lebanons' sovereignty as awash and was taking the only steps he thought he had left and that was to take up arms against the government to liberate Lebanon from Syrian domination.
Now if that isn't complicated enough one has to realize the dynamics of the Middle East is to maintain stability because of all the opposing factions within the region that can literally ignite it.
Now consider this. Mr. Harizi is a Sunni Muslim. The 'terrorist' network that 'works' the area is Hezbollah. Hezbollah is Shi'ite with it’s origins in the region of Lebanon coming out of Iran in 1982. Hezbollah also has names of 'Islamic Jihad', 'The Revolutionary Justice Organization' and 'The Islamic Resistance.’ Further Hezbollah is a global organization with roots in Europe where Mr. Chirac has come out denouncing such an act. There are cells of Hezbollah in the USA including one that was trading in illegal cigarette sales in North Carolina.
So, to refocus, it is more than likely Hezbollah that was responsible for the attacks yesterday as they claim to be Jihadists and the bombing was definitely a jihad style attack. It is definitely Mr. Hariri that was the target. Hezbollah is what one might call the ‘street military’ of Syria. However, Syria does not recognize Hezbollah as connected to it’s government but does allow it headquaters in Damascus. The problem with any of these Jihad organizations, including al Qaeda which is Saudi Arabia’s nemesis is that as a government attempts to close in on shutting them down the more the violence escalates and in small countries like Syria and even Saudi Arabia that is then a task to maintain order and sovereignty. In Lebanon, having a Syrian dominated government was to satisfy the Jihadists of Hezbollah. It worked and it worked for a very long time until Mr. Hariri stepped out of his ‘role’ as the counter balance to the Syrian dominated government to oppose it.
The other factor that comes to mind is the issue of Shaba Farms and the recent decision by the UN Security Council awarding that land along Israeli’s northern border to Syria and not Lebanon. That area is occupied by Hezbollah. So the militant Islamics are feeling not only secure but in control as Hezbollah’s ultimate goal is to have Lebanon as their own nation based in a government resembling that of Iran.
Now, I’ve tossed around a lot of ‘nations’ within one essay but to exonerate any wrong doing by Bush in inflaming the issue by prompting discussions of a Shia Crescent doesn’t forgive him or his insistence of now fearing that Iraq is a member of such a crescent.
To prevent this essay from becoming a book I’ll just say it is most likely Hezbollah in one form or another that is responsible for the attacks in Beirut yesterday among the very buildings Mr. Hariri contributed to the post Civil War Lebanon. For Bush to take any condemnation further than seeking out the militants, which I believe there is already an arrest in Lebanon, is wrong and further victimizes a very difficult situation while the region grapples with the new Palestinian state and better defined borders for all these countries.
Once again I state as I always do, the Arab nations are best left to the Arabs and NOW included in that brotherhood is Israel. The region needs to resolve it’s own problems and with STABLE and long lived leadership like Mubarak and Abdullah the problems of extremism can be defeated. I believe that whole heartedly. The USA needs to prove only financial support where needed IF it still can considering it’s ridiculous debt and other nations like Russia need to maintain a healthy but interested and stability distance to honor the men of leadership in the Middle East that can bring the area under control and free of extremists. It is doable and the leaders within those countries are capable and that includes for now Syrian backed Lebanese President Emile Lahoud. I don’t believe sanctions are important or effective unless nations of the Middle East call for them.
There is also no reason to escalate this into an idea that the new Iraqi Shi'ite majority is anything more than what it is and there is a mass movement toward instability. That is Bush propaganda. Any movement by the USA in that direction should be received with sharp and quick criticism.
