By Vladimir Solovyov
...In other areas where Russia also claims the role of a security guarantor, (click here) it’s not much better. Azerbaijan and Armenia have resumed their war: fighting that Moscow had supposedly stopped in 2020. More recently, another military conflict erupted between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, despite them both belonging to the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. These factors cannot fail to take their toll on Russia’s authority and influence over its neighbors.
The tensions exist between the CISFTA member states and the EEU member states. EEU is a Russian alliance. I think what is going on here is obvious. Free Trade is not the real agenda for Russia. The picture for NATO involvement is larger than it appears. Russia is too stretched to maintain it's own sovereign military. Putin is stuck with decisions he cannot face. Dropping bombs is easy, maintaining order takes more than that.
Amid Moscow’s numerous diplomatic and military failings, Transnistria is becoming a tempting—and relatively easy—target for neighboring Ukraine. Kyiv’s claims that its armed forces could easily take control of the self-proclaimed republic are more than just talk.
Russian troops there serve side by side with local residents: Transnistrians who are Russian passport holders. For the latter, military service has more to do with earning a decent wage by local standards than it does with identity. This puts their willingness to fight in doubt, especially since it would be hard to send in reinforcements from Russia: given the Russian army’s failure to carve out a corridor through southern Ukraine, they could not make their way there overland, and flying them in would risk them being targeted by Ukraine’s air defenses....
Amid Moscow’s numerous diplomatic and military failings, Transnistria is becoming a tempting—and relatively easy—target for neighboring Ukraine. Kyiv’s claims that its armed forces could easily take control of the self-proclaimed republic are more than just talk.
