Sunday, March 18, 2018

"Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia," Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 36, Issues 1-2, March 2003, pp. 1-15.

By Are Kant, Jaak Jaagus and Raivo Aunap

...Climate change scenarios (click here) for the year 2100 indicate a significant increase in air temperature (by 2.3–4.5 °C) and precipitation (by 5–30%) in Estonia. The highest increase is expected to take place during winter and the lowest increase in summer.
Due to a long coastline (3794 km) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Seven case study areas characterising all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0-m sea-level rise by 2100 are presented in this paper. This is the maximum scenario according to which the actually estimated relative sea-level rise would vary from 0.9 m (SW Estonia) to 0.7 m on the north-western coast due to different velocities of land uplift in the studied areas.
The longest coastline section recession (6.4 km) would occur on the western coast of the mainland where extensive areas of reed bed and flooded meadows would relocate landwards or disappear. Possible damages in Tallinn, the capital city, would be the greatest compared to the other study areas....

NASA Believes by 2100, the oceans will have risen by 26 inches.

...In 2018, NASA will launch two new satellite missions (click here) that will be critical to improving future sea level projections: the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission, a partnership with GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) in Germany, will continue measurements of the mass of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; while the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) will make highly accurate observations of the elevation of ice sheets and glaciers.