I don't think dry air in the upper troposphere is going to effect it much right now. Predicting the storms requires identifying where the water vapor is coming from. It is the water vapor that heats up and provides the added velocity to the storm. There can be dry air masses impacting the storm, but, if it has a consistent source of water vapor the dry air will be compensated by the water vapor.
August 21, 2015
1830:15z
UNISYS Goes East Water Vapor Satellite of the North and West Hemisphere (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)
There is a reason why this storm is building in defiance of all predictions otherwise.
When water vapor is fed into the storm; the storm then populates the dry air with water. That is why the tropics are starving for water.
From the beginning of this blow I have addressed the complex systems as "Heat Transfer Systems." That is exactly what is happening. The water vapor trail entering the 'system' of Danny is transferring heat to the oceans through the dynamics of the storm. Water is the one component to the physics that will build the system.
Above to the right is a satellite view of Danny at August 21, 2015 at 0630.19z. (click here) It is easy to see the FAINT water vapor trail from South American to the storm. Danny at this particular time is a Tropical Storm, but, it had fixed it's water vapor source regardless of the dry air north of the storm. Kindly note the additional water vapor trail north, but, attached to the storm. So, the Tropical Storm Danny was well supported and it was being feed with plenty of water vapor to fuel the velocity.
This is Danny's traverse across the Atlantic. It was fairly puny until it reached the water vapor rich air South America. As soon as it met the water vapor source off South American it rapidly accelerated.
Now, the water vapor Danny is working very hard to hold on to and distribute in the regional air mass, the next storms will have an easier time accelerating it's velocity because there is a richer population of water vapor molecules available to support that next storm.
This is not the normal progress of hurricanes before 2006. Storms of the past had a rich water vapor source at the surface of Earth. That is not the case today in 2015. Today, the heat has to be intense enough (and today the direct solar rays are more important to begin the spin) to spawn a desperately thirsty storm to begin the season.
August 21, 2015
By Doyle Rice
Danny's winds strengthened to 115 mph,(click here) making it a Category 3 hurricane as it spins toward the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said Friday.
This now qualifies the hurricane as a "major" hurricane, which is defined as any storm of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength. A crew aboard a "hurricane hunter" aircraft, which flew into the storm, confirmed the hurricane's strength Friday afternoon.
As of 2 p.m. ET, Danny was located 900 miles east of the Caribbean's Leeward Islands and was slowly moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. On its current track, the storm will move across islands such as Guadeloupe, Montserrat, and Antigua and Barbuda by Monday.
Danny should "weaken below hurricane strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands," the hurricane center said. The storm could actually deliver needed rain to many of the parched Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico, much of which is in a drought.
Despite its wind speeds, "Danny is a tiny hurricane," the hurricane center said. "Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles."...
If a climatologist can't understand the new high velocity storms and insists on defining them based in old world process, he or she doesn't belong in the business. The hurricanes of 2005 are extinct.
August 21, 20151830:15z
UNISYS Goes East Water Vapor Satellite of the North and West Hemisphere (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)
There is a reason why this storm is building in defiance of all predictions otherwise.
When water vapor is fed into the storm; the storm then populates the dry air with water. That is why the tropics are starving for water.
From the beginning of this blow I have addressed the complex systems as "Heat Transfer Systems." That is exactly what is happening. The water vapor trail entering the 'system' of Danny is transferring heat to the oceans through the dynamics of the storm. Water is the one component to the physics that will build the system. Above to the right is a satellite view of Danny at August 21, 2015 at 0630.19z. (click here) It is easy to see the FAINT water vapor trail from South American to the storm. Danny at this particular time is a Tropical Storm, but, it had fixed it's water vapor source regardless of the dry air north of the storm. Kindly note the additional water vapor trail north, but, attached to the storm. So, the Tropical Storm Danny was well supported and it was being feed with plenty of water vapor to fuel the velocity.
This is Danny's traverse across the Atlantic. It was fairly puny until it reached the water vapor rich air South America. As soon as it met the water vapor source off South American it rapidly accelerated.
Now, the water vapor Danny is working very hard to hold on to and distribute in the regional air mass, the next storms will have an easier time accelerating it's velocity because there is a richer population of water vapor molecules available to support that next storm.
This is not the normal progress of hurricanes before 2006. Storms of the past had a rich water vapor source at the surface of Earth. That is not the case today in 2015. Today, the heat has to be intense enough (and today the direct solar rays are more important to begin the spin) to spawn a desperately thirsty storm to begin the season.
August 21, 2015
By Doyle Rice
Danny's winds strengthened to 115 mph,(click here) making it a Category 3 hurricane as it spins toward the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said Friday.
This now qualifies the hurricane as a "major" hurricane, which is defined as any storm of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength. A crew aboard a "hurricane hunter" aircraft, which flew into the storm, confirmed the hurricane's strength Friday afternoon.
As of 2 p.m. ET, Danny was located 900 miles east of the Caribbean's Leeward Islands and was slowly moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. On its current track, the storm will move across islands such as Guadeloupe, Montserrat, and Antigua and Barbuda by Monday.
Danny should "weaken below hurricane strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands," the hurricane center said. The storm could actually deliver needed rain to many of the parched Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico, much of which is in a drought.
Despite its wind speeds, "Danny is a tiny hurricane," the hurricane center said. "Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles."...
If a climatologist can't understand the new high velocity storms and insists on defining them based in old world process, he or she doesn't belong in the business. The hurricanes of 2005 are extinct.
