0930:00z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click title to entry for 12 hour loop - thank you)
New Orleans levies are getting a work out today.
Look, this is not stabilized. Isaac is building strength off Louisiana and its reach is connected to a water vapor trail to the Arctic Circle.
The longer Isaac stays in a singular location the more the storm surge will build and the more pounding the new sea walls/levies will receive. This is very different than the dynamics of Katrina. The surge will revisit and revisit and revisit with every turn of the storm.
The water vapor trail is consolidating off shore of North Carolina and the barometric pressure across the state is falling. I haven't checked all the other states under that water vapor trail yet, but, there is a chance Isaac will sustain in the Gulf and collect strength from a self-generated water vapor source of North Carolina.
There are tornado warnings across the entire area of Isaac where it is over landfall. That is dangerous and needs to be respected. the more the low pressure 'stabilizes' in location the more dangerous it becomes.
Hurricane Isaac Whips Storm Surge en Route to New Orleans (click here)
Brian K. Sullivan and Matthew Brown,
Bloomberg News
Published 3:05 a.m., Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Isaac unleashed a storm surge of as much as 11 feet (3.4 meters) and strong winds as it made landfall for a second time enroute to New Orleans.
The storm was 70 miles (110 kilometers) south of New Orleans, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said in a report at 2 a.m. local time. The position of Isaac “wobbled” to the west after it made landfall at the Plaquemines Parish in southeastern Louisiana, and the eye was back over water as of 1 a.m. before making landfall again.
“Isaac has moved little over the past couple of hours,” the center said. “But a slow northwestward motion is expected to resume later this morning.”...
1030:00z
UNISYS Water Vapor North and West Hemisphere Satellite (click here for 12 hour loop)
There are five major circulation centers in this hemisphere with four within the same water vapor trail, including Issac.That tells me there is a lot of stabilization of this front.
Within the stagnant water vapor trail is the circulation center off North Carolina, Isaac, two storms in the East Pacific. The more autonomous storm is Kirk in the Atlantic which is experiencing significant oscillation and reorganization.There is also a developing tropical disturbance off Africa.
The circulation west of Mexico is Tropical Storm Ileana. Ileana is still building and increased its wind speed 10 knots in the last nine hours with a central pressure of 985.
In the Atlantic, Kirk is a Tropical Storm with winds of 40 knots with a falling central pressure of 1007. It is a weak storm.
The combination of these three major storms carries huge amounts of water and dynamics that are stalling Isaac over Louisiana. The people in the area of Louisiana needs to find a safe place above sea level. The continued hammering by Isaac will not cause sea wall/levy failure unless there is considerable 'water height' behind these walls. The weight of the water ALONG WITH the PUSH of the winds will cause increasing pressure against the walls. HOWEVER, while there is a build up of water behind the walls, there is also water flowing out of the system to the Gulf. BUT, the real 'water pressure' against those walls will be realized IF there are continually rising levels.
The Army Corp has to determine the HEIGHT of water these walls will sustain realizing the water is also being pushed IN A SINGULAR direction within those walls.
It is a strange concept at work within the sea walls/levies. But, it is a fluid dynamic of VECTOR forces in one direction along with increased weight of the water HEIGHT. Increased height and INCREASING height will prove the extent the weight of the water will increase vector forces on those walls.
To put it plainly, it is a PILING UP of water, its vector forces and weight against the sea walls/levies. I don't know the tensile strength of the sea walls/venies, but, there is a sustainable FORCE that will add to the dangers of the containment.
Lake Ponchartain has to be watched for flood limits, too. The movement of water from heights into areas behind the sea walls/levies can cause added weight to the vector force winds.
The system is stabilized and building force because Earth has a high heat component now entering the ocean and gulf waters. It is going to be awhile. People need to move out of low lying areas while it is still possible, simply for their own safety. It is precautions that is necessary. They should be able to move around with a Cat 1 storm. Flying debris will reduce the longer the winds exist simply because everything that was going to be moved from a stationary position has already done so. It is the potential for tornadoes that can be spontaneous, but, far less so in the sustained winds area.
The coastal areas of North Carolina is getting sustained rains as well. The height of the ocean along the coast may prove to cause damage to beaches and will close coastal roads. The rains connected with the storms in North Carolina can't be under estimated at this point. The system offshore of NC is currently reaching to Raleigh. That makes the storm system growing to be fairly large with a potential foot print at least 150 to 200 miles in diameter. Here again the largest part of the storm is over the ocean with potential effects of sustained winds along the beaches and beach roads.Take care and good luck.
