...The NHC currently puts the probability of tropical storm winds hitting Tampa in the next 5 days at 10% to 20%. That may seem low, but that is about as high as you will get this far out. The probability will go up as confidence in the storm track does.
The NHC current forecast track gives reason to believe the probability will go up in Tampa....
To me it looks more like Issac into Louisiana - Alabama and Joyce into Northern Florida - Georgia if at all.
There is also a turbulence east of North Carolina. The three storms are oscillating between each other and gaining strength. The chance of an more northern Atlantic storm gaining enough dynamic to thwart Issac is remote. However, Joyce appears to be organizing and will carry some of the heat that would be Isaac's otherwise.
August 23, 2012
00z
UNISYS Upper Air Map
August 23, 2012
1030.00z
UNISYS Water Vapor GOES East Satellite (click for 12 hour loop here)
The latitude for Issac has oscillated between 15.20 to 15.90 and back to 15.30 (click here). I would expect meandering in its oscillation with the other systems, but, returning to its more concentrated path along the direct solar rays. That was a lot of oscillation. The movement indicated an oscillation toward the more northern turbulence in the Atlantic until the return of sunlight restored its 'fuel path.' It is the way I see it so far.
The longitude of Issac shows a storm moving at a good pace which increased in speed from 30 to 40 knots in 48 hours.
