If "Irene" hits open ocean without contact with any land mass it will accelerate to Cat FIVE within a short period of time. I have already noted how quickly it accelerated once it crossed into the Atlantic. Expect the worst. Sorry. It is the way I see it. Earth is one hot troposphere. There are still tornadoes in the USA while there is a huge storm in the Atlantic. There are a lot of verified reasons to make this statement!