UNISYS Water Vapor North and West Hemisphere Satellite
September 13, 2010
2330:15z
Wow. When is the Climate Crisis gong to make headlines other than for political reasons. This is the second time this season there have been 'twin storms' moving together as a 'unit / system..' The first was Earl and Fiona and now there is Igor and Julia.
This is a new phenomena for Earth and its populous. It should be making headlines around the globe. What I am trying to figure out is WHY any 'observer' expects these storms to take a northerly route?
They are not connected in any way to a northern vortex. At all. They are receiving their water vapor from the 'equatorial air' and their energy from 'direct solar rays' that maintain a consistent latitude. Why would they veer off of those ENERGY AND HEAT SOURCES?
There are FOUR 'circulation centers' (vortexes if you will) that manifested nearly at the same time along the same latitude and are all moving along the same vector. So, what would the logical decision making be in this matter and where would the ? Cone of Uncertainty ? include?
The four 'circulation centers' can still be seen. The first in the line of 'ENERGY WAVES' is currently west of Mexico in the Pacific. It manifested over the Yucatan.
The third is Igor.
The fourth is Julia.
My concern is for the people of Belize and the Yucatan should Igor continue on its path. I don't see any of the systems entering the Gulf of Mexico at this point. But, I do believe the nations that border the Caribbean need to be on 'alert' for this adverse outcome.
There is a huge circulation center over Louisiana . THAT is the influential vortex in this 'chain of energy waves.' Not the North Atlantic. The circulation center over Louisiana has been extremely stable for over 24 hours now.
The people of the Antilles, if there are still people there this season need to prepare for very dire circumstances. I am confident they are already experiencing the effects of Igor by now. There has been dearly little time for the seas in the region of the world to 'calm' before 'this set of storms' manifested. It is a 'system of storms' actually.
The 'second' energy wave still over the Caribbean is taking on a 'reverse' circulation character. That potential could have a pushing effect against Igor, even now. But, I question if that will be enough to push a 'near Cat 5' storm off course.
Julia is putting a 'drag' on Igor but not in a significant way. From what I am looking at right now. There is a potential for Gulf involvement with Igor if the second wave in the Caribbean pushes enough and Igor skirts along the islands north and over Cuba. Then crossing the Keys and Southern Florida much as Andrew did and potentially becoming part of the vortex system over Louisiana with a direct strike there as well. IF Igor takes that route, it won't diminish in strength in an appreciable manner.
From its origins in Africa, Igor has moved a huge distance westward across the face of Earth in the Atlantic, but, only moved 4 degrees north in 4 days and 6 hours. It simply is not showing a propensity for northern movement in a meaningful way. I am not a believer in allowing 'chance' to enter the picture when it comes to saving human lives. I believe unless there is some significant tropospheric disturbance that moves Igor off its current route, there will be a significant path of destruction and danger for the nations between the Antilles to Florida.
I simply don't live in denial of a hot troposphere with plenty of 'energy' to allow for dangerous storms in whatever manner they manifest. Denial is the enemy. Denial is as expensive as preparedness, but, it is paid in human lives and property damage. Preparedness is a mattter of using 'already assembled' resources saved for 'a rainy day.' Gee, what a shame there is some inconvenience that comes to play when a Cat 4-5 storms is slipping across Atlantic waters unabated. Damn the inconvenience. Too bad.
Twelve hour loop at title to entry.
This the the path of Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Igor has the potential to follow a nearly identical path. But, slightly more southern. That is my assessment as of right now. However, there is a possibility Igor won't veer off at all, but, enter the Caribbean.
Igor is not moving as northerly as Andrew did. Andrew was a lot further north than Igor is now. In the same period of time of 4 days and 6 hours Andrew moved 13 degrees north while traveling a significant length of ocean. Igor isn't going to veer off. Don't count on it.
Igor's 'eye wall' has been extremely stable and significantly along the same latitude. If it turns north at all, Cuba needs to be on alert for a full length catastrophe. It will be more southern than Andrew was.
Until tomorrow.
