March 9, 2009
1830z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of the North and West Hemisphere
As is the case in this dynamic called Human Induced Global Warming, it waxes and wanes and there have been innumberable instances that have exhibited exactly that.
It would appear the 'system' currently causing much of the percipitation and freezing temperatures is reaching a maximum and the 'contributing' water vapor is somewhat diminished.
The interesting aspect to all this is the 'arctic' circumstances that have kept ground water frozen and unable to contribute to higher flood levels may actually still be a problem if the temperature warms enough and ice becomes a tributary to the Red River. That dynamic will eventually become a reality as Spring moves into Summer, but, hopefully it won't happen in a manner that adds to the mass of water currently flowing south.
It is a bit too early to call this a prolonged break that will resolve so people can go home. In my opinion, the actual dynamic that desperately has to be addressed is the fact the flooding of the Red River has been consistently a problem and the likelihood of this river resolving to a SAFE level is not likely.
In recalling last year and I believe the year before, Spring and Summer saw a chronic arrival of drenching rains from the Gulf through the entire Midwest. There is no reason to believe this year will be any different and Hurricane Season is on the way. With all the 'seasons' of tornadoes and one type of storm or another extending beyond what is 'normal' there is every reason to believe this season will see an early hurricane season and probably a prolonged one was well. I doubt tornadoes will give us a break and if the 'trend' of the last four years continues, the less hurricanes we have the more tornadoes occur.
According to the 'predictions' there are a few 'significant' storms with a potential for fourteen named storms. (click here) That is somewhat of a mild season, except, these years since 2002 aren't 'normal' seasons as they are dynamically effected by Human Induced Global Warming. So, while the water vapor may be diminished in the number of storms that occur it is questionable to the degree they do damage as they are stronger, wetter and having a higher degree of unpredictability under 'warming' conditions.
So, in regard to the Red River, the conditions that exist in the region are of saturated ground, with erosion and undetermined damage in subsoil stability due to repeated flooding conditions. In other words, after the negligent administration of the last eight years, we don't know what we have and studies have to proceed to determine the degree soils have changed and subsoil conditions could be adverse to communities along the river.
In the short term, MONITORING the Red River needs vigilance and attendance to river gauges along the entire system. Astute scientists with knowledge of geology, hydrology and an understanding of the communities and their dependence on the river for its benevolence are essential to the future of these towns and states. Both climate specialists and biologists are also important as the dynamics of water movement is guaranteed to change weather patterns, hence, changes to species dynamics and potential for threatened, endangered and invasive species. The farming communities don't need tropical systems from Indonesia carrying a crop disease foreign to American farmers with an understanding too late to act to protect their yields.
The unfortunate reality this new administration has to face is the huge degree of negligence of the past eight years to these sciences and their potential to protect the interest of our nation, including its communities and agriculture. Literally, the country is a mess. It is a mess in every department of the President's cabinet and the disrepair we find ourselves in also includes the underfunding of our sciences that act as part of upholding the dignity of industries such as agriculture.
To accurately predict when communities will be safe from river levels is tenuous and knowing the American people at the first glimmer of hope that storms are abating and river levels are coming down, they will head to their homes and attempt to resume their lives. So, predicting 'safe' conditions isn't really the issue, it is protecting the public from themselves when they seek to return to reestablish their lives that is the issue. The Red River has to be a work in progress that starts today and goes forward with chronic monitoring, assessing and modification. There won't be a 'safe' situation so much as a 'managed' circumstance that has flux built in to its vigilance.
Public officials, hired or elected, can seek to reach communities to empower a sense of urgency for evacuation with daily reports of river conditions and weather anticipations. The public has to come to terms with its circumstances and realize suddenly they may have to move to safety. During this time productivity of daily living can continue and the work of agencies involved in 'controlling' the river to the extent they can to prevent damage to communities will eventually reach a point where 'the river' is simply a body of water that flows by. There will be a point in time when flooding will be a matter of history and the 'river rising' won't be so much a threat as a manageable reality.
The sad reality of this administration is that it has to pick up the pieces and actually do the work that should have been done for decades, but, certainly should have been done in urgency since 2002 when vortices began to dominate the troposphere and weather patterns and climate began to dramatically shift.
I hope all those effected by the Red River will return to their homes soon and we as Americans won't find it necessary to rush to 'sandbagging' the floods so much as building sustainable barriers that will simply protect the regions activities from a highly unpredictable climate pattern.
