Thursday, January 10, 2008

Same 'ole, same 'ole. The Quagmire Returns, AKA "Get out to save face" or fight a 100 year war with no USA Treasury

Patraeus to An Albar, "Okay, okay we'll do it your way, but, can the numbers look better before Osama makes another video tape !"


The Iraq War is already a victory for the extremists. The USA under Petraeus surrendered to the will of the Sunnis in order to stabilize An Albar. When the region became quasi-stabilized there was a cohesive initiative to the remaining Sunni Sheiks. That was 'coined' by the USA as a 'winning strategy.' It was, in fact, neither innovative or winning. The players never changed. What did change were the colors of the USA flag, it went from red, white and blue to white overnight when Petraeus was harnessed to correct a failing Bush/Cheney crony war.

In December 2007, Osama bin Laden aired a video to refocus al Qaeda back to defeat of the Sunni Sheiks allied to carry out a strategy that would provide autonomy to them in Iraq.

New Bin Laden tape warns Sunnis against working with US (click here)
Ed Pilkington in New York
Monday December 31, 2007
The Guardian
Osama bin Laden has directed the fury of al-Qaida against a new target: Sunni Arab leaders in Iraq who have turned against insurgents backed by the terror group and are working with US forces to end violence in key areas of the country.
In his fifth recorded message this year, Bin Laden released an audiotape on Saturday which warned Sunni Arabs who had joined local US-led security initiatives that they had "betrayed the nation and brought disgrace and shame to their people. They will suffer in life and the afterlife."
The al-Qaida chief's concentration on Sunni tribal leaders who dared to break ranks with the insurgency underlined the changing picture inside Iraq in recent weeks. The transformation is most defined in Anbar province in the west of the country where coalitions of Iraqis, supported with US money and expertise and now numbering up to 70,000 fighters, have sharply reduced violence in the area....


The move by Sunni Arabs in An Albar is viewed as a victory to the Republican Regime in the USA. When it fact it is neither a victory or an alliance. While the Sunnis are seeking autonomy in relation to the violent influence of al Qaeda, it is not forming a cooperative central government. As a matter of fact, the three 'provincial' authorities that comprise Iraq are further from any common goal than ever. THEREFORE, the "Benchmarks" aren't being met and therefore the USA withdrawal from Iraq insured. The Bush/Cheney strategy is still political, calling 'the surge' a victory when in fact it has caused a build up of arms and 'the armed' that are in opposition to each other; while distracting from the fact the 'Unity Government' of Iraq is in complete failure. All this while tensions continue to flair between Turkey, a supposed ally of the USA and Northern Iraq.

...Focusing on training and arming all sides in the conflict has been counterproductive (click here) in achieving the main goal of the "surge" - providing the space for political reconciliation. Provincial elections and the referendum on the status of Kirkuk were postponed in 2007. The Iraqi Parliament was stalemated for most of the year and when it was functioning much of its activities were in opposition to that of the Iraqi cabinet. And the period for amending the constitution in a fast-track manner, which was the carrot for the Sunnis to help pass the constitution, has been extended for the fourth time. Politically, 2008 appears to be the most difficult to date.
These political tensions will come to a head as Bush and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki move forward in signing a formal agreement for the future US troop presence. This agreement, scheduled for completion by July 31, will likely coincide with the completion of the US Embassy. Both of these events will signal what Iraqis feared when the US invaded - that the occupation will become permanent, giving the US a dominant position with military bases, preferential access to oil and open access to Iraqi markets. With opponents in the parliament, the militias, the insurgency, and Maliki being in an extremely weak position, completion of this agreement could easily send the country into chaos....

Now the upside to all this, is that Iraq is ready to take care of itself. Only it isn't because it will remain a cohesive country but one that will divide into autonomous areas of self rule. The International Community that hold contracts and debt will state that is the worse thing that can happen to Iraq, but, the reality is 'the walls' are being built that separate Sunni from Shia and the forces are being trained and armed with the appearance of being a growing Iraqi miliary and police, when in fact they are 'sectored' into Sunni and Shia 'protectorates.' The 'surge' has little to do with providing stability for Iraq as a single country, but, it provided enough Americans to hold the violence in An Albar to a dull roar while a united Sunni force could be formed to defend itself.

Petraeus Says Iraqis Are Ready To Step Up (click here)
As The Surge Progresses, The Army Strives To Place Power In The Hands Of The Iraqi People
BAGHDAD, Jan. 5, 2008

(CBS) For David Petraeus, it's the beginning of year number two in the top job - and it's a year with one big question: what happens when the surge is over? By this July, the number of troops in Iraq, which peaked at 180,000, will shrink to 130,000. Defense Secretary Gates has said he'd like it to reach 100,000 by the end of 2008. CBS News correspondent Jeff Glor met with Petraeus before a briefing in Yousifiyah - a poor, rural region near Baghdad that used to be a hot spot for insurgents. "Al Qaeda has been pushed away and pushed around and killed, captured and so forth," said General Petraeus. "And that's what we have to continue to do." The challenge is doing that with a lot fewer troops....

If there is to be a Civil War in Iraq it will be to define the final borders of the three provincial authorities while Baghdad is abandoned as the country's capital and financial center. Baghdad will fall to the Shia. In time after the dust has settled, the land will once again be the holy lands of the Muslims and cooperation will build in economic cooperation to facilitate 'the commerce of the pilgrams.'



BAGHDAD, Jan. 5, 2008

January 9th, 2008 4:45 pm

9 US soldiers killed in Iraq in 2 days
Associated Press
BAGHDAD - Nine American soldiers were killed in the first two days of a new American drive to kill al-Qaida in Iraq fighters holed up in districts north of the capital, the U.S. military said Wednesday.
Six soldiers were killed and four were wounded Wednesday in a booby-trapped house in Diyala province, where joint U.S.-Iraqi forces were driving through a difficult web of lush palm and citrus groves, farmland and fertile river bottoms.
The military also announced that three U.S. soldiers were killed and two were wounded Tuesday in an attack in Salahuddin province. The operation began Tuesday.





We don't belong in Iraq !





We never did !