Wednesday, December 06, 2017

Russia likes to say this is none of The West's business. It is between the family of former Soviet states. I don't think so.

The issue facing the USA and Germany in the case of Ukraine is the blatant breaking of the treaty that secured Ukraine from having nuclear weapons. It is understandable how Russia would want Ukraine disarmed from it's former nuclear arsenal, but, to Europe it was a big sigh of relief to end Russian nuclear weapons parked on Europe's border.

When Russia acted aggressively against Ukraine after Yanukovych was ousted from power, was a violation of the treaty with the USA, Germany and Ukraine; but; also placed Europe in grave danger if Russia were to rebuild the arsenal in Ukraine.

To some, annexing Crimea and the invasion into eastern Ukraine bordering Russia was a given. But, when realizing what Russia gave up in national security by violating that particular treaty, was pure foolishness. Instead of Ukraine maintaining neutrality, as a country under treaty obligation to never rearm any nuclear capacity; President Putin thought he would simply take over Ukraine as a former state and according to him 'under siege' from militants. Putin bargained and now there is a problem and Ukraine has reconstituted it's national military with missile capacity. Additionally, there were sanctions placed again on Russia and it's oligarchs. I, personally believe, it was a huge blunder by Vladimir Putin in all fronts; national security as well as economic isolation of a BRIC country. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s (click here) invasion of Ukraine posed the most serious challenge to European security in decades. In one stroke, he thumbed his nose at the Helsinki Accords of 1975, the Paris Charter of 1990, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, and other agreements and commitments that had kept the peace in Europe—with the exception of the Balkans—since the end of World War II. Suddenly, the post–Cold War order was torn to shreds, and many worried that if Putin’s brazen act was left unchallenged, other authoritarian regimes would think they, too, could get away with aggression against their neighbors.

On balance, the Western reaction to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was much stronger than Putin anticipated, even if it was less than what many advocated. At the time Putin made his move, few would have thought that a year later the West would have in place a harsh sanctions regime against Russian officials and entities. Russia was too big and important, both strategically and commercially—or so Putin and others assumed. But Putin left the West little choice. His thuggish treatment of his own population belied his claims that he cared about the plight of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. His cold-blooded reaction to the tragic shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 turned around the mood in Germany, among other places, overnight.

The combination of Putin’s misplaying his hand numerous times during 2014 and the resolve of the West to take a stand against his aggression has left the Russian leader facing the gravest crisis of his presidency. There is some talk that Putin might not even serve out his current term, which runs until 2018....

The price being paid by all in the face of Russia's decision to follow the Old Communists rather than striking a new tone has been extremely tragic. The error by Russia to invade Ukraine and annex Crimea is a snowball rolling downhill and it never seems to end.

Tomorrow belongs to the next generation and refusing to allow that to occur globally has been stifling for Russia and the USA, especially when it comes to the climate crisis. President Putin has to step back from the brink of continued disaster and redefine the future of Russia to recapture it's movement toward peace. If Russia had not invaded Ukraine it could have a world stage to ridicule the USA for all it's offences as well. 

November 20, 2016
By Paul Roderick Gregory

On November 14, (click here) the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued its preliminary findings that “there exists a sensible or reasonable justification for a belief that a crime [my italics] falling within the jurisdiction of the Court ‘has been or is being committed’” within the Crimean and Donbas territories of Ukraine. On release of the ICC report, Russia announced that it would withdraw from the organization because it "failed to meet the expectations to become a truly independent, authoritative international tribunal." The ICC report intensifies Russia’s isolation following the Joint Investigative Team’s (JIT) blaming Russia for shooting down MH17.

Russia thus finds itself in the questionable company of Burundi, Gabon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Columbia, and Niger as suspects in creating international armed conflicts. The ICC report demolishes Putin’s narrative of the Ukrainian conflict, which paints Russia as an innocent bystander. Following the ICC report and Russia’s angry withdrawal from the international tribunal, there should be no further reference to “civil war,” “separatists,” or “insurgents.” Instead the conflict that has claimed 9,578 lives is an “international armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” Another consequence is that Russia, as a party to the conflict, should no longer have a “peacemaker” seat in negotiations in Minsk.

The ICC report is particularly embarrassing for the Kremlin as it tries to peddle its parallel-reality version of the Ukraine conflict to the incoming Donald Trump administration....

There is a global community with rights seeking justice. It is not just East vs West in a regression to the cold war. The invasion by Russia was completely wrong and the negligence of the USA to be a moral leader on climate is egregious. Neither country are the international heroes many had hoped they would become. It is a mess, all because of the politics of each country. Not because of a moral right or wrong, but, because each politics dictates moronity.