September 18, 2017
1030.18z
UNISYS Water Vapor Satellite of north and west hemisphere (click here for 12 hour loop - thank you)
Jose is between North Carolina and Bermuda. The Leeward Islands are having yet more hurricane force winds and water.
Jose is still a Cat. 1 hurricane. Wow. It is that far north and still a Cat. 1 hurricane. Jose has increased it's wind speed at that latitude with two other major storms in the Atlantic and two in the Pacific. The heat content of the troposphere has not resolved at all after Irma and Harvey. That is why these storms have longevity. There is plenty of heat to fuel them.
Jose moved nearly 4 degrees latitude in the past 30 hours. It's longitude is basically the same. There appears to be a growing diameter to Jose. That is rarely reported by the National Hurricane Center. If Jose remains at that longitude and latitude it will remain offshore, however, if it grows it's diameter, there can be another Harvey.
That is pure speculation and there are others that can answer that question within NOAA and the National Hurricane Center with state of the art data and supercomputers at their disposal.
The tides of the east coast USA and Bermuda are going to be dangerous.
Jose
29.20 -71.80 09/17/00Z 70 973 HURRICANE-1
30.00 -71.70 09/17/06Z 70 973 HURRICANE-1
31.00 -71.90 09/17/12Z 80 967 HURRICANE-1
31.50 -71.80 09/17/18Z 80 967 HURRICANE-1
32.20 -71.60 09/18/00Z 80 972 HURRICANE-1
33.00 -71.40 09/18/06Z 75 974 HURRICANE-1
Maria is dropping it's central pressure and picking up wind speed. Nothing here is good news. This is more battering of islands that are already devastated. Albeit, the winds are not Irma, but, there is weak infrastructure. How high do the winds have to be or how much more water can the land take before whatever infrastructure is left turns into danger and not a safe haven? The flying debris alone is deadly.
Kindly, don't underestimate Maria. It has the same capacity as Irma to build higher wind speeds. There is no good scenario here.
Maria
12.30 -52.60 09/16/18Z 45 1002 TROPICAL STORM
12.50 -53.70 09/17/00Z 45 1002 TROPICAL STORM
13.00 -54.90 09/17/06Z 55 994 TROPICAL STORM
13.50 -56.20 09/17/12Z 55 994 TROPICAL STORM
13.80 -57.50 09/17/18Z 65 982 HURRICANE-1
14.20 -58.40 09/18/00Z 75 979 HURRICANE-1
14.60 -59.50 09/18/06Z 80 977 HURRICANE-1
Lee is near east Africa. It is moving east and north. It is bouncing between a Tropical Storm and Tropical Depression. If Lee dissipates that is an indication there is still a cooling in the troposphere and good news. However, location is everything. The ocean waters near east Africa are cooler than those near North America. It is far cooler than the Gulf of Mexico. The travel rate of Lee will also determine it's ultimate outcome.
Lee
10.70 -25.40 09/15/00Z 30 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
10.60 -27.30 09/15/06Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11.40 -28.30 09/15/12Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.60 -29.70 09/15/18Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.80 -30.70 09/16/00Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.60 -32.10 09/16/06Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.50 -33.10 09/16/12Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
12.60 -34.20 09/16/18Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
12.80 -34.90 09/17/00Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
13.00 -35.40 09/17/06Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
13.00 -36.70 09/17/12Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13.20 -37.30 09/17/18Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13.60 -38.50 09/18/00Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14.10 -39.80 09/18/06Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Jose is between North Carolina and Bermuda. The Leeward Islands are having yet more hurricane force winds and water.
Jose is still a Cat. 1 hurricane. Wow. It is that far north and still a Cat. 1 hurricane. Jose has increased it's wind speed at that latitude with two other major storms in the Atlantic and two in the Pacific. The heat content of the troposphere has not resolved at all after Irma and Harvey. That is why these storms have longevity. There is plenty of heat to fuel them.
Jose moved nearly 4 degrees latitude in the past 30 hours. It's longitude is basically the same. There appears to be a growing diameter to Jose. That is rarely reported by the National Hurricane Center. If Jose remains at that longitude and latitude it will remain offshore, however, if it grows it's diameter, there can be another Harvey.
That is pure speculation and there are others that can answer that question within NOAA and the National Hurricane Center with state of the art data and supercomputers at their disposal.
The tides of the east coast USA and Bermuda are going to be dangerous.
Jose
29.20 -71.80 09/17/00Z 70 973 HURRICANE-1
30.00 -71.70 09/17/06Z 70 973 HURRICANE-1
31.00 -71.90 09/17/12Z 80 967 HURRICANE-1
31.50 -71.80 09/17/18Z 80 967 HURRICANE-1
32.20 -71.60 09/18/00Z 80 972 HURRICANE-1
33.00 -71.40 09/18/06Z 75 974 HURRICANE-1
Maria is dropping it's central pressure and picking up wind speed. Nothing here is good news. This is more battering of islands that are already devastated. Albeit, the winds are not Irma, but, there is weak infrastructure. How high do the winds have to be or how much more water can the land take before whatever infrastructure is left turns into danger and not a safe haven? The flying debris alone is deadly.
Kindly, don't underestimate Maria. It has the same capacity as Irma to build higher wind speeds. There is no good scenario here.
Maria
12.30 -52.60 09/16/18Z 45 1002 TROPICAL STORM
12.50 -53.70 09/17/00Z 45 1002 TROPICAL STORM
13.00 -54.90 09/17/06Z 55 994 TROPICAL STORM
13.50 -56.20 09/17/12Z 55 994 TROPICAL STORM
13.80 -57.50 09/17/18Z 65 982 HURRICANE-1
14.20 -58.40 09/18/00Z 75 979 HURRICANE-1
14.60 -59.50 09/18/06Z 80 977 HURRICANE-1
Lee is near east Africa. It is moving east and north. It is bouncing between a Tropical Storm and Tropical Depression. If Lee dissipates that is an indication there is still a cooling in the troposphere and good news. However, location is everything. The ocean waters near east Africa are cooler than those near North America. It is far cooler than the Gulf of Mexico. The travel rate of Lee will also determine it's ultimate outcome.
Lee
10.70 -25.40 09/15/00Z 30 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
10.60 -27.30 09/15/06Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11.40 -28.30 09/15/12Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.60 -29.70 09/15/18Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.80 -30.70 09/16/00Z 30 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.60 -32.10 09/16/06Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12.50 -33.10 09/16/12Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
12.60 -34.20 09/16/18Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
12.80 -34.90 09/17/00Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
13.00 -35.40 09/17/06Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
13.00 -36.70 09/17/12Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13.20 -37.30 09/17/18Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13.60 -38.50 09/18/00Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14.10 -39.80 09/18/06Z 30 1007 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
