Monday, March 23, 2015

The premise NAFTA was built on was completely wrong for the circumstances of the three countries.

The Flint GM plants didn't disappear because the product was no longer desired by the public. The product demand never ended, but, the ability of the people to purchase the product is gone.

Projections on Trade Balance, Jobs Prove Wrong (click here)

In 1993, Gary Hufbauer and Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) projected that NAFTA would lead to a rising U.S.trade surplus with Mexico, which would create 170,000 net new jobs in the United States within the pact's first two years. Similar figures were trumpeted by the Clinton administration and other NAFTA proponents. 

Hufbauer and Schott based their projection on the observation that when export growth outpaces the growth of imports, more jobs created by trade then are destroyed by trade. Instead of an improved trade balance with Canada and Mexico, however, NAFTA resulted in an explosion of  (CHEAP) imports from Mexico and Canada to huge U.S. trade deficits.

According to Hufbauer and Schott’s own methodology, these deficits meant major job loss. Less than two years after NAFTA’s implementation, even before the depth of the NAFTA deficit became evident, Hufbauer recognized that his jobs prediction was incongruent with the facts, telling the Wall Street Journal, “The best figure for the jobs effect of NAFTA is approximately zero...the lesson for me is to stay away from job forecasting.” Despite this, PIIE is at it again, forecasting future export increases and income gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). 

THE PREMISE is completely wrong. The premise was a theory that when correctly applied the principle works, BUT (and it is a big but) all those aspects have to be equal to improve trade and create more jobs.

By all rights, NAFTA should have sold more cars to Canada and Mexico. The problem began when CEOs realized they could move their operations to Mexico for cheap labor and make megaprofits.

When the jobs left for Mexico the targeted consumer was still Americans. What occurred was the loss of jobs, the loss of income and the consumers disappeared. Americans have been struggling back from that point forward. Now, the USA produces the working poor. There isn't even a welfare system to assist them and if the Republicans have their way there won't be any welfare system and OCO will receive all that funding.

The idea Americans on assistance are lazy is the furthest from the truth. Americans have to organize and go on strike so their employers stop paying a poor wage. It is the only way. The USA will never lose it's place in the global market because there are large amounts of consumers with an income. The income over subsistence is disposable and there is every indication (cell phones) when a product is offered American consumers will purchase it. 

The Republicans like the Working Poor. They like cheap labor to compete with other labor markets even in Bangladesh. 

The birth right of the promise of the American Dream belongs to all Americans. The Republicans are redefining that because they adhere to crony politics to fund their campaigns. This is not that difficult for anyone to understand. 

If NAFTA worked the way it was suppose to work, every American would be earning not just a living wage, but, a very good wage. When that happens Americans CAN fund the education of their children and build a better mousetrap, but, until that promise is returned to the American people, this mess of the Republicans will continue.

If President Obama would produce a balance sheet on how TPP and TTIP would benefit the Working Class in the USA there would be far less resistance, but, the working people of the USA have learned a very valuable lesson with NAFTA. The American worker would now be facing re-establishing their share of the market in the way of wages with countries such as Vietnam and China. 

It is not reasonable to believe the Pacific countries will even practice fairness. To date these countries cheat. They aren't going to stop cheating, they are going to find new ways of cheating. The American doesn't want to hang in the balance and wait for things to 'be right' so they can reclaim their economy and promise.

It is up to the leaders in the USA to PROVE life is going to be better with TPP and TIPP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). Right now, we know it won't.

LOCAL ECONOMIES, Everyone!  

February 12, 2015
By Miles McKenna and Ian Gillson

...On February 4, (click here) the World Bank’s International Trade Unit hosted Phil Levy, a senior fellow on the global economy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, who has been following both negotiations closely. Levy spoke with World Bank staff about the potential implications for developing countries as negotiations move forward in what he calls “bargaining among behemoths.”

At this point in the negotiations, one thing is clear: there are still more questions than answers....


I don't believe President Obama or his administration wants to hide anything from Congress or the American people. What I do believe is that he has no substantial answers or reassurances from other partners going forward. 

The American people have a right to reassurances. We now have vehicles we purchase with 100,000 miles warranties. We don't simply want President Obama to kick the tires and dive into a trade deal. The American people want reassurances and those aren't forthcoming. The other partners can pressure the administration all they want; the American people want answers and are in absolutely no hurry to have another disaster on our hands.

These countries forget what occurred under Bush. I suppose we are all completely recovered and ready to put together a trade group to improve the global economy. I don't think so.